The Solana token has been consolidating just beneath the $145 level for several days, with market participants anticipating its next directional move. A confluence of improving technical indicators and growing institutional adoption paints a cautiously optimistic picture, though underlying on-chain metrics present a more nuanced story. The key question is whether SOL can muster the momentum for a decisive breakout.
Institutional Validation Gains Momentum
A significant development emerged on January 6th, when financial giant Morgan Stanley filed an S-1 application with the SEC for a Solana-focused Exchange-Traded Fund. This marks the first initiative by a major U.S. bank to create a regulated investment vehicle offering direct exposure to SOL, highlighting the asset’s rising credibility among traditional finance institutions.
In a parallel sign of corporate engagement, Sharps Technology—a publicly-traded medical device firm—has chosen to delegate its SOL holdings to a Coinbase validator. Rather than maintaining a passive treasury position, the company is now actively earning staking rewards and contributing to network security. This move exemplifies a broader trend of traditional enterprises beginning to utilize Solana’s core infrastructure.
Technical Structure Hints at Upside
From a chart perspective, SOL has recently broken out of a multi-month descending channel. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has turned positive, with its histogram bars rising, suggesting building bullish momentum.
Key price levels to watch are:
* $145: The immediate and primary resistance zone.
* $150: A secondary barrier above the current range.
* $170: A potential extended target should a sustained breakout occur.
On the downside, support is established near $135 and $130. The recent basing action has provided a foundation from which buyers could launch another attempt to push prices higher.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Solana?
A Tale of Two Metrics: DeFi Strength vs. User Growth
The Solana decentralized finance ecosystem continues to demonstrate robust growth, with its Total Value Locked (TVL) surpassing $9 billion—a tenfold increase over the past two years. Innovations within the ecosystem are advancing, notably with Jupiter Exchange launching JupUSD, a stablecoin backed by BlackRock’s BUIDL fund. Furthermore, the Jupiter Aggregator has now processed over $1 trillion in cumulative trading volume, commanding a dominant 90% market share.
However, network growth data introduces a note of caution. The number of new wallets created has declined sharply, from 30.2 million at the end of 2024 to just 7.3 million at the start of 2026. This slowdown raises questions about Solana’s ability to attract sufficient new users to sustain its long-term expansion.
An additional on-chain observation shows that 79.6% of the circulating SOL supply is currently held at a loss—a pattern historically observed during corrective phases. A silver lining can be found in exchange net outflows, which stand at approximately -$1.53 million, indicating a reduction in immediate selling pressure.
Derivatives Market Reflects Heightened Speculation
The derivatives landscape revealed notable tension on January 12th. Short position liquidations totaled roughly $7.24 million, significantly outpacing long liquidations of $3.75 million. The majority of these losses occurred on the Binance and Bybit exchanges. Meanwhile, the open-interest-weighted funding rate remains positive at 0.0072%, meaning traders are paying a premium to maintain long positions. While this denotes market conviction, it also carries risk; an overcrowded long side could unwind rapidly if the anticipated breakout fails to materialize.
The Path Forward
The immediate focus rests squarely on the $145 resistance level. A convincing close above this threshold could open the path toward $150 and eventually $170. The blend of institutional interest, DeFi innovation, and constructive technicals supports the case for further upside. Nevertheless, reigniting user growth remains a critical challenge for ensuring the longevity of any rally. The coming trading sessions will determine whether bullish forces have gathered enough strength to propel Solana into a new higher range.
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