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Silver has endured a turbulent stretch, lurching from a sharp selloff triggered by the collapse of the US–Iran provisional peace agreement to a rapid recovery fueled by fresh Middle Eastern hostilities and a weakening dollar. The white metal, which briefly touched a weekly low of $55.75, has clawed back to trade near $59 per ounce, with institutional investors positioning for a longer-term rebound even as short-term headwinds persist.
The catalyst for the initial leg lower came on Wednesday when President Donald Trump declared the tentative peace deal with Iran dead. Crude oil prices surged more than 5% on the news, stoking inflation fears and reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates elevated. Markets now assign a 66% probability to a US rate hike in September, a scenario that typically pressures zero-yielding assets like silver. Against that backdrop, the metal slumped to $58.38 before extending its decline.
Yet even as prices faltered, a contrarian trend emerged in the ETF arena. The iShares Silver Trust recorded net inflows of over $14 million last week, with holdings expanding by roughly four tonnes. The buying is in stark contrast to gold, where the world’s largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Shares, shed nearly $1 billion over the same period. Year-to-date, silver ETFs have suffered net outflows of around $3.6 billion, representing a 9% contraction in total holdings, suggesting that the recent inflows represent selective accumulation rather than a broad reversal.
The geopolitical landscape shifted again on Thursday, sending silver sharply higher. American strikes against Iran prompted retaliatory rocket attacks on Kuwait and Bahrain, driving investors into safe havens. The rebound accelerated as the US dollar softened, making dollar-denominated silver more attractive to overseas buyers. The metal surged as much as 3.5% in a single session, bringing the psychologically important $60 level back into sight. President Trump later calmed markets by stating that Iran was seeking a deal, but the damage to sentiment had already been done.
The gold-to-silver ratio, a key barometer for relative value, stood at 69.44 – meaning an ounce of gold buys nearly 69.5 ounces of silver. The ratio has edged lower from recent highs, signaling that silver is starting to outperform its yellow counterpart.
Technically, silver has bounced hard from its June low near $54, but analysts remain cautious. Many chart watchers describe the current pattern as a bear flag, warning that a sharp rally could be a prelude to further downside. Nevertheless, a sustained break above nearby resistance would open the door to a move toward $73 in the medium term, according to some technical strategists.
Major banks are looking well beyond the current noise. J.P. Morgan forecasts an average silver price of $81 per ounce for the current year – roughly double the average of 2024. Longer-term, a handful of analysts see the metal reaching $100 by 2030, underpinned by industrial demand and structural supply deficits.
For now, the trajectory hinges on the Federal Reserve. The release of the Fed minutes on Wednesday will be scrutinized for any shift in the rate outlook. Should policymakers signal that cuts are on the horizon, the current rally would gain significant momentum. If, however, the hawkish tone persists, silver’s recovery may prove short-lived. The competing forces of geopolitical risk, dollar direction, and monetary policy are keeping the white metal firmly in the spotlight.
Gold came under renewed selling pressure on Thursday after the release of Federal Reserve meeting minutes revealed a more aggressive policy stance than markets had anticipated. The precious metal slipped to $4,043.60 per troy ounce, extending its seven-day decline to 2.25% and leaving it 6.87% in the red since the start of the year. At its current level, the spot price sits roughly 28% below the 52-week high of $5,626.80 reached in January.
The catalyst for the latest leg lower was the publication of the Fed’s latest deliberations, which showed committee members discussing further tightening amid stubbornly high inflation. Chair Kevin Warsh remains steadfast in his commitment to the 2% target, and several policymakers signaled readiness to keep rates elevated for an extended period. Traders have now priced in a strong probability of a rate increase at the September meeting, with some even speculating about a move as early as July. The prospect of higher borrowing costs has crushed any lingering hope of near-term cuts that had buoyed gold earlier in the year, raising the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset.
Underpinning the Fed’s hawkish tilt is a surge in energy-driven inflation. US consumer prices climbed to 4.2% in June — the highest reading in three years — fueled by the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The disruption, which began in late February, has kept oil and gas prices elevated, creating a vicious cycle: geopolitical turmoil normally drives investors into gold as a safe haven, but this time the resulting inflation has forced central banks to tighten policy, undermining the metal’s appeal.
The dollar’s strength has added another layer of headwinds. A firm greenback makes dollar-denominated gold more expensive for international buyers, compounding the drag from rising real yields. Volatility remains extreme, with gold accounting for 42% of total trading volume at broker Capital.com in the second quarter.
Yet the selling has not been universal. While ETF investors have continued to exit — 16 tonnes flowed out of physically backed funds in May, and redemptions persisted into June — sovereign buyers have taken advantage of lower prices. Central banks added a net 244 tonnes of gold in the first quarter, led by Poland, Kazakhstan and Brazil, a trend that has provided a floor under the market. Still, some 298 tonnes of ETF holdings are now sitting below the $4,000 level, creating a dense zone of technical resistance that any rally must first overcome.
Chart watchers are increasingly bearish. The 50-day moving average has crossed below the 200-day moving average — a classic “death cross” pattern — and the price currently stands 7.78% below the short-term trend line and 10.91% below the long-term one. The relative strength index at 38.4 suggests oversold conditions, but 30-day volatility of nearly 28% points to lingering nervousness. The next major support sits just 3.65% below current levels at $3,901.30, the 52-week trough; a decisive break below that could open the path toward $3,500.
Among the big banks, forecasts remain divided. JPMorgan sees gold recovering to $4,500 by the fourth quarter, while Goldman Sachs recently trimmed its year-end estimate to $4,900. Analysts broadly agree that a durable turnaround hinges on one condition: a de-escalation of the Iran standoff that would relieve pressure on energy prices and, in turn, allow the Fed to ease off its restrictive stance. Until then, the metal looks likely to remain caught between cautious central bank buying and the gravitational pull of higher yields and a stronger dollar.
Ripple’s XRP is caught in a crossfire of contrasting signals. The token’s price has slumped to $1.07, down 6.2% on the day, even as a string of bullish developments — from an institutional bank entry to an EU licence and a shrinking exchange supply — suggests the fundamentals are aligning. The market’s inability to sustain recent gains above $1.13 has left XRP trading 8.94% below its 50-day moving average of $1.18, with the 200-day average at $1.47 still a distant target.
The supply picture is tightening notably. On Binance, XRP reserves have fallen to a two-year low of around 2.6 billion tokens, down from roughly 2.8 billion in November 2024. The exchange’s derived scarcity index has climbed to 0.77, the highest since mid-2024. A similar trend appears across all trading platforms: just 1.6 billion tokens now sit on exchange books, a seven-year nadir and a 50% plunge from the peak struck in October 2025. In theory, such dwindling supply should amplify any fresh demand, but the price action suggests buyers have yet to step up in force.
On the institutional front, the signals are increasingly bullish but slow to move the needle. Intesa Sanpaolo, Italy’s largest bank with roughly $1.1 trillion in assets, has acquired $18 million in exposure to XRP through the Grayscale XRP Trust. The move comes as the bank’s total crypto exposure more than doubled to $235 million between the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026. Separately, Ripple secured a full Crypto-Asset Service Provider licence from Luxembourg’s CSSF on July 6, 2026, granting MiCA compliance across the European Economic Area. That regulatory milestone was followed by a “sell-the-news” drop, with analysts pointing to profit-taking and lingering caution over the US CLARITY Act, which missed its July 4 Senate deadline and has injected uncertainty among institutional participants.
Further bolstering the network’s credibility, Ripple announced a first-of-its-kind sponsorship with Kansas Athletics, placing the XRP logo on the jerseys of University of Kansas teams, including the storied Jayhawks basketball programme. CEO Brad Garlinghouse, an alumnus, helped drive the deal. Meanwhile, the XRP Ledger is gearing up for a network upgrade: version 3.2.0 has reached 89% adoption among validators on the Unique Node List, clearing the 80% activation threshold. The upgrade aims to lower node operating costs and improve stability for institutional settlements. A related security amendment, fixCleanup3_2_0, is still gathering votes and requires two consecutive weeks above 80% to become active.
On-chain activity, however, remains subdued. Daily transactions on the XRP Ledger are running at about 1.3 million, some 29% below the three-month average. That contrasts with a surge in new wallet creation: 26,000 new wallets were added in the final week of June, the highest weekly tally since March and a 40% jump from the prior week. The total number of XRP accounts has hit a record 8.42 million, with nearly 490,000 new addresses created in the first half of 2026. Tokenised real-world assets on the XRPL have swelled to roughly $4 billion in value, nearly quadruple the total assets under management in XRP spot ETFs, which themselves have logged eight consecutive weeks of net inflows totalling $1.47 billion.
Technically, XRP is treading water near its 52-week low of $1.01, set on June 26 – just 6.6% below the current price. The relative strength index sits at 42.2, signalling neither oversold nor particularly robust conditions. On the upside, resistance remains firm in the $1.15 to $1.20 range, a zone that stymied the mid-June rally to $1.13. Open interest in XRP derivatives has cooled to $2.38 billion, while on Binance the estimated leverage ratio is a low 0.158, suggesting less speculative futures activity and more spot-oriented accumulation. Analysts caution that while the shrinking exchange supply provides a cushion above $1.04, a decisive break below $1.00 would invalidate the entire recovery structure of recent weeks. Whether the mosaic of positive catalysts – from institutional entrances and regulatory wins to tightening supply – can finally push XRP through overhead resistance remains the central question for the weeks ahead.
Ripple is signing up heavyweight partners and rolling out new infrastructure at a breakneck pace. Yet the XRP token continues to bleed value, caught between an institutional exodus on Wall Street and a regulatory vacuum in Washington. The disconnect between the company’s growth narrative and the market’s cold shoulder has rarely been starker.
Goldman Sachs dealt the most damaging blow. The bank completely liquidated its once‑massive XRP ETF position during the first quarter of 2026, a stake valued at roughly $154 million at the end of last year. Analysts read the move as a tactical pivot: Goldman had likely been holding the exposure only to service client trades, not as a long‑term conviction bet. The proceeds were instead plowed into crypto‑related equities such as Coinbase and Galaxy Digital. The move underscores a growing preference among large institutional players for capturing blockchain upside through stocks rather than through the tokens themselves.
Retail and smaller institutional money tell a different story. US spot ETFs on XRP pulled in $6.55 million on July 2 alone, marking the eighth consecutive week of positive flows. Assets under management across these products have swelled to around $988 million, while cumulative inflows since launch have reached nearly $1.4 billion. On‑chain data reinforces the accumulation narrative: the number of active XRP wallets surged 72%, and balances on exchanges declined, suggesting holders are moving tokens into custody rather than preparing to sell.
Ripple’s business development machine has not slowed. On July 4 the company launched a startup accelerator on the XRP Ledger in partnership with Hong Kong‑based Brinc, part of a broader push to position the network as a platform for real‑world applications rather than mere speculation. The same day, Ripple kickstarted a donation campaign tied to the 250th anniversary of US Independence Day, joining forces with the Call of Duty Endowment, an organisation that has already placed 165,000 veterans into jobs with a target of 200,000 by 2030. Donors can contribute cash, stocks, or crypto — including XRP and Ripple’s own stablecoin RLUSD — and Ripple will match gifts up to $10,000.
The company also signed on as a member of the newly formed Open USD Consortium, a stablecoin initiative backed by Visa, Mastercard, and BlackRock. The consortium’s dollar‑pegged token is slated for launch in 2026 on blockchains such as Solana and Polygon. Notably absent from the list of supported networks is the XRP Ledger itself. Ripple president Monica Long stressed the importance of cross‑chain payments, but the omission underscores a persistent reality: the company’s strategic wins do not automatically translate into demand for XRP.
On its own ledger, Ripple’s home‑grown stablecoin RLUSD is gaining traction. A third‑party research report found that RLUSD had already processed over $2.5 billion in settlement volume, with nearly $900 million coming from direct trading pairs against XRP. Yet even that usage has done little to arrest the token’s slide.
The price picture remains grim. XRP changed hands at $1.09 on Friday, up 3.25% on the day but nursing a weekly gain of 4.24%. Over the past month the token has lost 10.11%, and it is down 42% since the beginning of the year. The 12‑month decline stands at 51.38%. At $1.09, the token is trading 70% below its 52‑week high of $3.65 set in July 2025, while hugging just 7.34% above the 52‑week low of $1.01. All major moving averages sit above the current price: the 50‑day line at $1.21 (10.51% higher) and the 200‑day average at $1.49 (a 27.07% gap). The relative strength index of 42.9 signals neither overbought nor oversold conditions, but annualised volatility of 42.74% keeps the risk profile elevated.
A cloud of regulatory uncertainty continues to hang over the asset. The CLARITY Act, which would classify XRP as a commodity, remains stalled in the Senate. Lawmakers left for summer recess on June 29 and will not return until July 13, pushing any floor vote back to at least late July, with early August now the more realistic target. Over in California, the compliance deadline for the state’s Digital Financial Assets Law passed on July 1 without any enforcement action against Ripple, removing a short‑term friction point but doing nothing to clarify the federal picture.
For now, Ripple’s operational momentum and XRP’s price action are heading in opposite directions. Infrastructure players are lining up to work with the company, and on‑chain metrics suggest a committed holder base. But until a clear regulatory framework emerges — and until institutional giants like Goldman Sachs show a willingness to hold XRP rather than trade around it — the token’s long slide may have further to run.
On the surface, the gold market looks bruised. The spot price has clawed back to $4,091.60 after a volatile session, a gain of 1.74% on the day, but the metal remains 9.38% lower over the past month and more than a quarter below the January record of $5,626.80. Beneath the calm, however, a massive buying operation is underway — one the official data barely registers.
Central banks reported net sales of 129 tonnes of gold in the first quarter of 2026, with Turkey emerging as a major seller. Yet the World Gold Council, tracking alternative trade flows, estimates that true global demand reached 244 tonnes over the same period. The driver? China. The country’s net imports surged to 317 tonnes in Q1 — nearly triple the previous quarter’s level. The People’s Bank of China also accelerated its official purchases, buying eight tonnes in April after months of near-stagnation. This clandestine appetite stands in stark contrast to the metal’s public price performance.
Tuesday’s ADP employment report jolted the market out of its torpor. The U.S. private sector added only 98,000 jobs in June, well below the consensus range of 105,000–113,000 and down from a revised 122,000 in May. “The hospitality sector has been underperforming for six straight months,” said Nela Richardson, ADP’s chief economist, while noting that finance and IT continue to hire. The weak print immediately dragged down Treasury yields and the dollar, providing a tailwind for non-yielding gold. The ISM manufacturing index added to the gloom, falling to 53.3 against an expected 54.0, while its price index cratered from 82.1 to 73 — a clear sign that industrial inflation pressures are fading.
Gold’s bounce above $4,000 came just hours after the European Central Bank’s Sintra forum, where Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh announced a sharp shift in communication strategy. The Fed will abandon forward guidance, with future rate decisions made behind closed doors based on real-time data. Warsh acknowledged that inflation risks are ebbing but reaffirmed the 2% target. Markets are now pricing in a 67% probability of a rate hike in September, up from the 60% figure seen earlier. The Fed’s new opacity is unsettling traders already grappling with mixed economic signals.
Technically, the metal remains in a precarious position. The relative strength index stands at 39.4, and the price is nearly 8% below its 50-day moving average. That moving average, around $4,730, serves as formidable resistance; the 200-day line offers support. A drop below $4,000 could open the door to $3,901.30, the 52-week low, while further weakness might push gold toward $3,800, technical analysts warn.
On the bullish side, J.P. Morgan sees a massive rally ahead, forecasting $6,000 by year-end 2026 and $6,300 in 2027. The Deutsche Bank is more circumspect, slashing its third-quarter target to $4,300. The World Gold Council projects an average price of roughly $4,100 in the second half of the year, with a 5% range of fluctuation. The short-term picture is a tug-of-war, with Chinese buying and easing inflation worries on one side and a hawkish Fed and lingering dollar strength on the other.
All eyes now turn to Friday’s official U.S. jobs report. A weaker-than-expected release could solidify the recovery above $4,000; a stronger print would likely reignite fears of persistent core inflation at 4.2% and pave the way toward the $3,800 zone. For now, gold’s real story is being written not in price charts but in the vaults of Beijing.