As gold and silver scale unprecedented peaks, drawing investors toward traditional safe havens, Bitcoin continues its struggle to find a solid footing. The premier cryptocurrency is experiencing its most substantial outflows from exchange-traded funds in nearly a year, coupled with a noticeable pullback from institutional players. Growing market unease ahead of the impending Federal Reserve interest rate decision raises questions about whether the anticipated crypto winter of 2026 could intensify.
Macroeconomic Headwinds Dampen Risk Appetite
The divergence between asset classes is striking. Gold has surged past the $5,000 per ounce milestone for the first time, while Bitcoin faces persistent selling pressure. Market analysts largely attribute this split to prevailing macroeconomic uncertainty. Robust U.S. economic indicators have severely diminished hopes for an imminent Fed rate cut, with market pricing now suggesting a near 97% probability that the central bank will hold rates steady at its meeting this week.
Further weighing on risk sentiment is the political stalemate in Washington. The looming threat of a partial government shutdown by January 31st is adding to investor anxiety. Within this climate, capital is fleeing risk assets: spot Bitcoin ETFs witnessed outflows of approximately $1.3 billion last week, marking the most significant weekly withdrawal since February 2025.
Underlying Network Metrics Show Strain
Sentiment is not the only area showing weakness; fundamental on-chain data is also flashing cautionary signals. A report from investment manager VanEck highlights declining user numbers and transaction volumes. A particularly notable trend is emerging within the mining sector, where the network’s hash rate—a measure of total computational power—is undergoing its most prolonged sustained decline since early 2024.
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This shift is not solely driven by Bitcoin’s lower price. Analysts are observing a strategic pivot among miners. Many operators are increasingly redirecting their computational capacity toward high-performance computing (HPC) applications for artificial intelligence, which currently promise more stable and higher returns per unit of energy compared to cryptocurrency mining.
Despite the short-term pressures, there are glimmers of long-term conviction. The company Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, used the price dip as an opportunity to add over 25,000 Bitcoin to its corporate treasury holdings. Furthermore, so-called “whales”—large investors holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC—now collectively control assets worth roughly $130 billion.
Technical Picture Hinges on Key Price Levels
From a chart perspective, the situation remains tense. Technical analysts at Swissblock warn that recent price action has reinforced a bearish scenario. Trading at $88,347.00, Bitcoin continues to operate well below its 50-day and 100-day moving averages.
Two critical price levels now dictate the immediate technical outlook. On the downside, the zone around $84,500 is viewed as crucial support. A sustained break below this area could, according to experts, trigger an extended correction toward the $74,000 region. To repair the technical damage and shift momentum, bulls would need to propel the price above a key resistance level at $94,500.
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