The white metal has spent the past week clawing back ground in dramatic fashion. After a two-session surge of roughly 7 percent last week, silver tacked on another 0.18 percent on Thursday to trade near $62.14 per ounce, leaving it up 8.97 percent on the week. The rebound has trimmed some of the pain from a bruising three-month stretch, though the metal still sits 14.73 percent lower over that window. On a twelve-month basis, however, the picture is far brighter: silver has appreciated 64.32 percent.
That resilience is underpinned by a physical market that remains exceptionally tight. The World Silver Survey projects a supply deficit of 46.3 million ounces for 2026 — which would mark the sixth consecutive year that demand has outstripped supply. Cumulative shortfalls since 2021 have drained more than 760 million ounces from global inventories. Visible stockpiles at exchange warehouses tell the story vividly: they stood at roughly 525 million ounces at the end of 2025 but had dwindled to around 313 million ounces by spring 2026.
Industrial buyers continue to absorb metal at a steady clip, with electronics manufacturers and the photovoltaic sector holding demand firm. Retail investors have grown more enthusiastic too, with purchases of coins and bars estimated to have jumped 18 percent recently.
A Thaw in the Gulf Tempers the Rally
The week’s advance has not been without its countercurrents. Reports on August 6 that Iran and Oman had agreed on a temporary shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz — aimed at stabilizing energy flows in the Middle East — sent risk premiums in crude oil sliding. That, in turn, dampened inflation expectations and briefly dulled silver’s appeal as a crisis hedge.
Yet the macro backdrop has swung decisively in the metal’s favor on another front. Soft US labor market data have revived speculation that the Federal Reserve may soon ease policy. The ADP private payrolls report for July came in at just 44,000 new jobs, well short of the 65,000 to 70,000 economists had penciled in. The ISM services employment index also softened, and the yield on ten-year US Treasuries fell roughly 10 basis points in response. With the official July jobs report due Friday — economists expect 80,000 new positions after 57,000 the prior month — traders are positioning for a dovish tilt that would weigh on the dollar and, by extension, boost dollar-denominated commodities like silver.
Banks See Higher Prices Ahead, Disagreement on Magnitude
The metal’s trajectory has been volatile this year. After setting an all-time high above $121 per ounce in January 2026, silver has corrected sharply. Current levels sit about 13 percent below the start of the year but roughly 10 percent above the July trough.
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Forecasts from major financial institutions published on August 6 span a wide range, though none anticipate a slide back below current levels. J.P. Morgan sees silver averaging $81 in 2026. Citigroup is more bullish, flagging potential for $110 in the second half. ING takes a more conservative view at $74 for the fourth quarter, while Commerzbank pencils in around $67 by year-end.
On the charts, $60 has emerged as a key support level, with a broader support zone spanning $60.70 to $61.50. Resistance sits at $63.00; a sustained breakout above that level, market watchers say, would open the door to further gains, while a drop back below support would put the recent rally in question. Analysts also point to the gold-silver ratio, which stood near 68 in early August against a long-term average of roughly 60 — a signal that silver remains relatively inexpensive compared with gold.
Miners Cash In on Firm Prices
The elevated price environment is now showing up in producer financials. Silver X Mining reported record second-quarter revenue of $17.3 million, up 29 percent quarter-over-quarter and 221 percent year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $6.9 million, and the company swung to a first-half net income of $7.7 million after a loss in the prior-year period. Sustainability costs per ounce fell 13 percent sequentially.
Fortuna Mining generated $85.7 million in free cash flow during the quarter, with adjusted EBITDA of $200.8 million — a 63 percent margin. The company also repurchased $82.1 million of its own shares.
On the exploration front, Silver Storm Mining reported promising drill results from the Rosarios zone at its La Parrilla project in Mexico, including one interval grading 215 grams of silver equivalent per tonne over 11.9 meters and another returning 200 grams per tonne over 15.4 meters. The company sees potential to expand its existing resource base.
For investors, Friday’s jobs report looms as the next inflection point. Should it confirm the weakness signaled by the ADP data, expectations of looser monetary policy are likely to build further — a scenario that has historically provided a tailwind for silver.
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