The cryptocurrency market’s exuberance has faded considerably since Bitcoin reached its all-time peak in October. The leading digital asset has surrendered approximately 30% from that record high and is now engaged in a struggle to maintain crucial technical levels. Beyond the price action, underlying on-chain metrics and miner revenue data point to a pronounced cooling in fundamental demand, presenting a sobering picture for investors.
Technical Landscape Under Strain
The technical outlook remains precarious. Analysts at Glassnode have pinpointed the zone around $81,300 as a critical support level, termed the “True Market Mean.” A sustained break below this threshold could trigger intensified selling pressure. Conversely, any rapid recovery attempt faces a formidable barrier: a massive concentration of supply is noted between $93,000 and $120,000, effectively capping upward momentum.
Market participants are closely watching December 26th, when a significant volume of options contracts is set to expire. A large number of these positions are clustered around the $85,000 strike price. Traders anticipate continued volatility and sideways movement in the lead-up, with the $81,300 level viewed as the bulls’ final defensive line.
Fading Fundamentals and Network Activity
A concerning decline in fundamental network health underscores the price weakness. Activity on the Bitcoin blockchain has slumped to a twelve-month low. The 7-day moving average of active addresses has decreased to 660,000—a level not observed since December 2024.
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This network lethargy is having a direct impact on miners. Their daily revenue has fallen from an average of $50 million in the third quarter to roughly $40 million currently. The composition of this revenue is particularly telling: it is now almost entirely comprised of the block subsidy. Transaction fees contribute minimally, signaling weak demand for blockchain space and a lack of robust organic usage.
Institutional Flows Fail to Offset Selling
The anticipated year-end rally has yet to materialize. As of Thursday, Bitcoin is trading near $86,700, confined to a narrow range. Traders are noting increased instances of the “Bart Simpson Pattern”—sharp price rallies that are almost immediately met with equally swift sell-offs. A brief breakout toward $90,000 earlier in the week was promptly reversed.
Market observers, including Mike McGlone of Bloomberg Intelligence, caution that October’s surge past $100,000 may have set the stage for a deeper correction. Sentiment has been damaged, with long-term investors divesting an estimated 500,000 Bitcoin since July. While ETF issuers and corporate entities now hold about 13% of the total supply, ongoing institutional inflows are currently insufficient to fully absorb this persistent selling pressure.
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