As 2025 draws to a close, Bitcoin is trading significantly below its all-time peak. This performance stands in stark contrast to global equity markets, which are celebrating fresh record highs. The leading cryptocurrency is contending with persistent outflows from institutional investment products and a notable shift in the behavior of its long-term holders. For now, the $90,000 price level remains elusive.

Regulatory Developments Offer a Silver Lining

Beyond the immediate price pressures, several positive regulatory shifts are unfolding globally. In the United States, banks have been granted permission to facilitate risk-free crypto transfers. Ghana has moved to legalize trading in digital assets, and Hong Kong’s insurance regulator is considering allowing insurers to make cryptocurrency investments. These developments hint at a maturing infrastructure, even as short-term sentiment wanes.

A Surge in Selling by Long-Term Investors

On-chain analytics reveal a pronounced trend: the number of wallets holding at least one Bitcoin has decreased by 2.2% over the course of the year, now standing at 974,380. More significantly, the selling activity from long-term holders has accelerated sharply. Their daily sales volume surged from approximately 97,800 BTC in November to 279,000 BTC by late December—a dramatic increase of 185%. Market observers suggest this pattern likely indicates profit-taking or sales motivated by tax considerations.

Volatility Looms with Expiring Derivatives

The market braces for potential turbulence as a massive options package is set to expire on December 26th. This event involves 300,000 contracts with a notional value of $23.7 billion. Concurrently, the total open interest in Bitcoin futures is approaching $60 billion, a threshold historically associated with sharp price movements.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Bitcoin?

Liquidation data maps out key levels. A decisive break above $92,167 could trigger the liquidation of short positions worth $2.1 billion. Conversely, a drop below $83,427 would endanger long positions valued at $1.3 billion. The prevailing market mood is captured by the Fear & Greed Index, which reads 24, signaling “extreme fear.”

Persistent Outflows from Spot ETFs

A primary driver of the current weakness stems from U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). These funds have recorded net outflows for four consecutive trading days, with a single-day withdrawal of $188.64 million on December 23. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust led the retreat, losing $157 million alone, followed by outflows of $25 million each from funds offered by Fidelity and Grayscale.

The cumulative outflows for November 2025 have reached $3.5 billion, marking the second-largest monthly exodus since these ETFs launched. The 30-day average for net inflows has now turned negative.

With Bitcoin poised to end the year roughly six to seven percent below its January level, the $100,000 milestone appears unrealistic for 2025. As the new year begins, the structural support zone around $80,000 will be critical for the asset’s near-term trajectory.

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