After a sharp retreat from its October peak, investors are searching for signs that a bottom is forming. The aggressive selling sentiment appears to be easing, with the market’s focus now fixed on the US Federal Reserve. On-chain metrics suggest speculative excesses have been flushed out, paving the way for long-term holders to reassert their positions.
Institutional Maturity and Declining Volatility
The cryptocurrency landscape is displaying growing signs of sophistication. Bitcoin’s volatility has plummeted dramatically in 2025, falling from 84% to approximately 43%. This shift is being driven by deeper institutional adoption and clearer regulatory frameworks, highlighted by the recent move from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to list spot trading on regulated domestic exchanges.
Institutional interest continues unabated. French banking giant BPCE announced plans to open cryptocurrency trading access for two million of its retail clients. Meanwhile, US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs now collectively manage assets worth roughly $103 billion.
A Market in Limbo Awaits the Fed
Cryptocurrency markets are currently consolidating. The primary catalyst for this period of hesitation is the upcoming interest rate decision from the US Federal Reserve in December. Market data indicates a 93% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut. Such a move would typically benefit risk assets, as lower interest rates tend to enhance the appeal of non-yielding investments.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Bitcoin?
Simultaneously, analysts have alleviated concerns regarding a potential rate hike by the Bank of Japan. Fears that this could disrupt the yen carry trade and negatively impact Bitcoin are now viewed as overstated. Even following an increase, Japanese interest rates, forecast at 0.75%, would remain significantly below US levels, preserving the dollar’s relative attractiveness for investors.
On-Chain Data Points to a Reset
Examining blockchain fundamentals reveals encouraging signals. The ratio of realized profits between long-term and short-term holders—known as the SOPR Ratio—has declined to its lowest point since early 2024. This indicates a “complete reset” of selling pressure. Long-term investors have halted distribution now that the speculative fervor from the previous rally has dissipated.
In parallel, fundamental network activity remains robust. More than 700,000 active addresses in a 24-hour period and a transaction volume that rivals traditional payment networks underscore utility beyond pure price speculation.
The current price of $92,140.70 reflects this stalemate. Trading approximately 8% below its 50-day moving average, the market has yet to establish a clear new directional bias. The decision on the next sustained trend will likely hinge on the upcoming Fed meeting, with a decisive break above key resistance zones potentially reopening the path toward the $100,000 milestone.
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