As mid-January 2026 unfolds, Bitcoin continues to trade sideways, hovering around the $90,500 level. The leading cryptocurrency is searching for direction following a retreat of more than 30% from its October peak. While some analysts point to on-chain metrics suggesting a potential bottom may be forming, overall market liquidity remains constrained.
Regulatory Developments Take Center Stage
Regulatory clarity in the United States is advancing, with the proposed Clarity Act making progress. This legislation aims to delineate regulatory authority between the SEC and the CFTC, establishing a framework for tokenized assets and DeFi projects. Analysts at Goldman Sachs view its passage as crucial for attracting further institutional capital, emphasizing that enactment in the first half of 2026 is important before the U.S. midterm elections potentially reduce political bandwidth.
In a related move, the SEC issued guidance in December 2025 concerning the custody of crypto assets by broker-dealers. This provides traditional financial institutions with greater clarity on how to securely hold digital assets in compliance with regulations.
On a local level, a spate of fraud incidents at cryptocurrency ATMs is prompting action. The FBI reported losses of $240 million in the first half of 2025 alone. In response, the city of Spokane, Washington, has become the largest U.S. municipality to ban crypto ATMs, with states including Arizona, Arkansas, and Vermont also tightening regulations.
Trading Activity Cools as ETF Flows Reverse
A clear trend has emerged in recent days: trading volume is declining. After exceeding $52 billion on January 6, activity fell to approximately $27 billion by January 10. The price itself oscillated within a narrow band between $90,500 and $93,700, indicating a wait-and-see approach among many market participants.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs, which were a primary driver of prices in 2024 and early 2025, faced outflows of $1.1 billion over a three-day period at the start of January. Standard Chartered notes that ETF purchases are expected to become the main source of future price appreciation, especially as large-scale Bitcoin accumulators have scaled back activity following the rally.
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The total net assets of Bitcoin ETFs, led by BlackRock’s product, stand at roughly $130 billion. This figure represents about seven percent of Bitcoin’s total market capitalization.
Divergent Price Projections for the Year Ahead
Forecasts for Bitcoin’s 2026 price trajectory vary widely. Carol Alexander of the University of Sussex envisions a range of $75,000 to $150,000. Both Standard Chartered and Nexo anticipate a level of $150,000, while CoinShares cites a bracket of $120,000 to $170,000. Bit Mining presents an even broader outlook, projecting between $75,000 and $225,000.
Taking a longer-term view, hedge fund manager Mark Yusko believes a total market capitalization of $15 trillion is achievable; the current valuation is approximately $1.8 trillion. Yusko suggests Bitcoin has just completed the first decade of a 30-year adoption cycle.
Analyst Perspectives on Market Structure
Despite the subdued volume, crypto analyst Willy Woo identifies positive signals. His capital flow models indicate that Bitcoin may have found a local low on December 24, 2025. Liquidity in the futures market is recovering gradually, in a pattern reminiscent of mid-2021 before the previous cycle high. Woo cautions, however, that overall market liquidity has weakened since the start of 2025, lacking the foundation needed for sustained price advances.
From a technical standpoint, Woo identifies the crucial near-term resistance zone between $98,000 and $100,000. A decisive and sustained breakout above this area could pave the way for a retest of the all-time high. Until that level is convincingly breached, the current consolidation phase is likely to persist. The next significant market catalyst could stem from the passage of the Clarity Act or a revival of institutional inflows into Bitcoin ETFs.
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