The Bitcoin market currently finds itself at a complex crossroads, influenced by three dominant forces: escalating conflict in the Middle East, an impending Federal Reserve meeting, and a multi-billion dollar accumulation race between financial giants. That the cryptocurrency continues to trade above $70,000 amidst this trifecta of pressures is noteworthy.
Institutional Titans in a Buying Race
A high-stakes competition for the largest Bitcoin reserves is unfolding. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust currently holds 779,504 BTC, while Strategy Inc. follows closely with 738,731 BTC—a gap of approximately 40,700 Bitcoin. Last week alone, Strategy purchased an additional 17,994 BTC for about $1.28 billion, paying an average price of $70,946 per coin.
The funding mechanisms for these purchases differ fundamentally. Strategy finances its acquisitions through convertible bonds and equity-linked instruments. In contrast, BlackRock’s buying is directly tied to inflows into its exchange-traded fund. On March 13, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $180.4 million, with BlackRock’s IBIT attracting $143.6 million of that total. This marks the first two-week inflow streak in nearly five months, following an outflow trend that exceeded $3.8 billion.
The Stealthy Influence of Oil Prices
A tight correlation between crude oil and Bitcoin has recently emerged. When the U.S. and Israel launched joint attacks on Iran in late February, Bitcoin plunged from $70,000 to under $63,000 within hours. Iran’s retaliatory measures—missile strikes on Israel and U.S. bases, along with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz—briefly pushed oil above $119 per barrel.
This relationship has persisted. This week, as the oil price retreated by three dollars, Bitcoin promptly jumped back above the $70,000 threshold. However, a stubborn resistance level between $73,000 and $74,000 has repelled the price four times over the past two weeks, remaining unbroken.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Bitcoin?
The Upcoming Fed Stress Test
All eyes now turn to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s meeting on March 17 and 18. Markets are pricing in a greater than 95% probability that the central bank will hold its benchmark interest rate steady within the 3.50% to 3.75% range. The “dot plot” of economic projections and Chairman Jerome Powell’s subsequent press conference are likely to carry more weight than the rate decision itself.
Historical precedent offers a sobering outlook: Bitcoin lost value following seven out of eight FOMC meetings in 2025. Since the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs, the asset’s price has become acutely sensitive to interest rate expectations. More than $55 billion in cumulative ETF inflows have firmly embedded Bitcoin into institutional portfolio models.
On-Chain Metrics: Scarcity Without Euphoria
On-chain data presents a mixed picture. The percentage of Bitcoin supply held on exchanges has dropped to 5.8%—the lowest level since November 2017, indicating growing scarcity. Yet, data from Glassnode reveals that accumulation within the current price range of $62,000 to $72,000 has been relatively subdued compared to historical patterns. A broad wave of “dip-buying,” which fueled previous rallies, has so far failed to materialize.
Another notable signal is found in derivatives markets. The average funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual futures has been negative for 14 consecutive days, the longest such streak since December 2022. Historically, over the past seven years, similar periods have frequently coincided with local price bottoms.
Since reaching its all-time high of $126,230 in early October 2025, Bitcoin has shed approximately 44% of its value. For the current month of March, it registers a gain of about 8%. If this trend holds, it would be the first positive monthly close after five consecutive months of losses.
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