A cryptic warning of an approaching “storm” from Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson has cast a shadow over the ecosystem. The alert comes at a time of stark contrast within the project: the native ADA token languishes near annual lows, while its newly launched privacy-focused sibling, Midnight (NIGHT), has exploded in trading volume and price.

ADA’s Steep Decline Erases Political Cycle Gains

Cardano’s ADA is currently trading around $0.35, perilously close to its yearly low. This represents a dramatic 70% collapse from its cycle peak of $1.32 reached in December 2024. The network’s market capitalization has been halved, falling from over $25 billion to a range of $13-14 billion.

Technical indicators present a conflicted outlook. While a falling wedge pattern—often a precursor to a bullish reversal—has formed, and bullish divergences are visible in the RSI and MACD, fundamental on-chain data tells a more concerning story.

Network Activity and Whale Behavior Signal Trouble

Active addresses on the Cardano blockchain have plummeted from 93,000 during the recent election period to fewer than 25,000, according to data from DeFiLlama. This decline in usage coincides with significant selling from large holders. Over the past two months, whales have offloaded approximately 120 million ADA tokens, a move that paralleled the token’s 50% drop from the $0.80 level.

A particularly striking comparison highlights potential valuation issues. Competitor Sui now boasts a Total Value Locked (TVL) that is 4.5 times greater than Cardano’s, despite commanding only one-third of ADA’s market capitalization.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Cardano?

Midnight Token Emerges as a Standout Performer

In stark contrast to ADA’s weakness, the Cardano-native privacy token Midnight is experiencing a powerful rally. NIGHT has climbed to a range of $0.07 to $0.09, marking a 43% gain for the week and standing 135% above its monthly low. Its 24-hour trading volume, nearing $4 billion, has propelled it to become the fourth most-traded cryptocurrency, trailing only Tether, Bitcoin, and Ethereum.

With a market cap between $1.0 and $1.5 billion and 6,190 on-chain holders, Midnight has rapidly established itself in the privacy sector. Its success aligns with industry forecasts from firms like Coinbase and Grayscale, which have identified privacy tokens as a key thematic trend for 2026.

Cardano’s Top-Ten Ranking Faces a Threat

Cardano currently holds the 10th position by market capitalization among all cryptocurrencies, but its standing is under pressure from a surging Bitcoin Cash. ADA’s performance in 2025 has been notably weak, with a 64% loss in value that underperforms even Dogecoin, which has seen a more limited 50% decline.

Attention now turns to Hoskinson’s development roadmap. His work on the “Pentad” proposal aims to integrate Tier-1 stablecoins and oracle networks into the Cardano ecosystem. The founder’s “storm” announcement, coupled with Midnight branding, suggests imminent developments. Market participants are looking ahead to potential quarterly results or strategic updates around December 22nd for clarity on whether the current technical basing pattern will lead to a trend reversal or if critical support at $0.30 will be broken.

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