A dramatic military intervention over the weekend has sent shockwaves through commodity markets, propelling gold to its highest level this year. The price for a troy ounce of the precious metal vaulted past the critical psychological barrier of $4,460 following the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife by U.S. forces as part of Operation “Absolute Resolve.”
Safe-Haven Assets in High Demand
The unfolding political crisis has triggered a classic flight to safety among investors. Gold recorded its third consecutive daily gain, currently trading above $4,460. This places it within striking distance of its all-time high of $4,549.71, set on December 26, 2025—a mere 2% away from that record.
The rally intensified on Monday with a single-day explosion of 2.7%, equivalent to a gain of approximately $122. The move was mirrored across the precious metals complex, with silver also posting significant strength to trade above $76 per ounce, underscoring broad sectoral demand.
Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Data Fuel Gains
The price surge is being driven by a potent combination of geopolitical instability and concerning economic signals. The U.S. intervention, framed by Washington as a temporary assumption of “leadership” in Venezuela, has drawn immediate international condemnation from major powers including Russia and China, sharply elevating global tensions.
Concurrently, fundamental U.S. economic data provided additional support for non-yielding assets. The December ISM Manufacturing PMI disappointed markets, coming in at 47.9 points against a forecast of 48.3, signaling a cooling industrial sector. In a separate development, Federal Reserve President Kashkari warned that inflation, recently reported at 2.7%, remains “too high.” This mix of economic softness and persistent price pressures enhances gold’s appeal as a store of value.
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Analyst Outlook Turns Bullish
Market experts are revising their forecasts upward in light of the new risk landscape. Major bank UBS has outlined a scenario where further geopolitical escalation could push gold to $5,400 per ounce by 2026, representing a potential increase of over 20% from current levels.
The bullish technical structure remains intact, reinforced by the decisive breach of the $4,450 resistance level. Analysts note that investor behavior—aggressively buying any price dip—confirms the market’s underlying strength. The upward pressure is expected to persist as long as the situation in Caracas remains unresolved.
All eyes now turn to the upcoming U.S. employment report due Friday, which is anticipated to offer further clues on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy path and set the next directional cue for the gold market.
Key Data Points:
– Gold advances for a third straight day, now above $4,460 per ounce
– U.S. President Trump announces temporary “leadership” of Venezuela
– International criticism from Russia and China escalates geopolitical friction
– December ISM Manufacturing PMI registers at 47.9 points (forecast: 48.3)
– UBS sees potential for gold to reach $5,400/oz in 2026 under escalation scenario
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