The new trading year has commenced with a clear signal from professional investors, as Bitcoin experiences a resurgence of institutional interest. This shift is characterized by substantial inflows into US spot ETFs and on-chain metrics suggesting a supply squeeze, even as the price remains notably below its peak from October 2025.

Regulatory Developments and Equity Market Reactions

Recent activity extends beyond direct cryptocurrency markets into related equities and regulation. Index provider MSCI announced yesterday that it is pausing its plans to exclude companies with significant digital asset holdings from its global indices. This decision provided immediate relief, particularly for MicroStrategy, the largest publicly traded corporate holder of Bitcoin. Following the news, MicroStrategy’s stock surged over 6% in after-hours trading.

Analysts from JPMorgan had previously cautioned that such an exclusion could have triggered forced selling worth billions of dollars. The MSCI pause temporarily removes this overhang from crypto-adjacent equities.

The regulatory spotlight now turns to January 15, 2026, when the US Senate is scheduled to vote on new cryptocurrency legislation. Key points of debate include the regulation of decentralized finance (DeFi) applications and ethical guidelines for politicians and agency officials dealing with digital assets. Lobbying efforts from industry representatives have intensified significantly this week ahead of the vote.

Spot ETF Inflows Signal Renewed Confidence

A primary driver of the current momentum is unmistakable: institutional demand channeled through US spot Bitcoin ETFs. Data from the first two trading days of 2026 shows more than $1.2 billion flowing into these products. Monday alone saw an influx of $697 million, marking the highest single-day inflow in the past three months.

Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas notes that if this pace continues, it could annualize to nearly $150 billion in inflows—a jump of approximately 600% compared to the net inflows of $21.4 billion recorded for the full year 2025. In a parallel development, Morgan Stanley filed applications for new Bitcoin and Solana-based ETFs on Tuesday, signaling the banking sector’s continued active development of crypto-related products.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Bitcoin?

This perspective is supported by data from Capriole Investments. Analyst Charles Edwards reports that institutional investors have returned as net buyers since January 7, 2026. This key metric had previously flipped to the seller’s camp in October 2025, coinciding with Bitcoin’s peak above $126,000. Historically, such signals have preceded average price increases of around 109%, though market observers stress that past patterns offer no guarantees for future performance.

On-Chain Data Points to Accumulation Phase

Blockchain analysis reveals a market dynamic less driven by retail euphoria and more by a lack of selling pressure. Market expert Axel Adler describes the current phase as an “accumulation regime,” supported primarily by exhaustion on the seller side. The On-Chain Pressure Oscillator currently reads approximately 46, indicating a moderate level of tension.

Key on-chain factors include:

• Short-Term Holder Dynamics: Bitcoin is currently trading below the average cost basis for short-term holders. This leaves many recent buyers “underwater,” removing the immediate basis for profit-taking for now. Significant selling pressure from this cohort is only expected to re-emerge around the $100,000 level.
• Miner Activity: Publicly traded miner Riot Platforms sold approximately 1,818 BTC worth $161 million in December 2025, reducing its holdings to 18,005 BTC. Concurrently, its production increased by 8% month-over-month to 460 BTC. While miners remain net sellers, they continue to hold substantial reserves.
• Whale Transactions: A significant on-chain transaction linked to Galaxy Digital was recorded today, involving 3,200 BTC valued at roughly $295 million. Market participants closely monitor such movements, as they can introduce noticeable localized selling pressure.

This combination of constrained supply, robust ETF demand, and selective large-scale transactions creates an environment where individual orders can have a pronounced impact on price discovery.

Market Liquidity and the Path Toward $100,000

As of mid-week, Bitcoin is trading near $92,064, representing a gain of almost 4% over the past seven days. The price holds slightly above its 50-day moving average, yet remains roughly a quarter below its 52-week high. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 38.1 suggests cooled rather than overheated market conditions.

Liquidity data from the Binance exchange shows structures resembling those seen before previous upward movements. The overall cautious sentiment aligns with the narrative of ETF buying meeting seller fatigue on-chain. The development of liquidity around the psychologically and technically significant $100,000 zone will be crucial for the medium-term trend. This region represents both the break-even point for many short-term investors and a potential area for profit-taking by institutional buyers.

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