The silver market is enduring one of its most turbulent trading periods in recent memory, caught between its dual identities as a haven asset and an industrial commodity. Prices have swung violently, erasing gains driven by geopolitical shocks almost as quickly as they appeared.

A Week of Extreme Swings

This volatility was on full display in early March. After briefly surging past $96 per ounce at the start of the week, the metal experienced an intraday collapse of 7%. By Thursday, March 5, silver was quoted at $82.78 an ounce, a level just below its $83.70 price from two days prior. The dramatic peak represented a fleeting breakout, with the entire geopolitical risk premium wiped out within just 48 hours of trading.

Conflicting Forces at Play

The initial price spike was triggered by a series of destabilizing events: US-Israeli attacks on Iran, the killing of Supreme Leader Khamenei, and the critical closure of the Strait of Hormuz. These events prompted a classic flight to safety. However, the rally proved short-lived as markets began to digest the shocks. A strengthening US dollar and rising interest rate expectations added significant downward pressure, fueling a sharp reversal.

Further uncertainty was injected by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who indicated the new global tariff of 15% is expected to take effect this week. This combination of war risk and recession fear creates opposing pressures on silver, pulling it in different directions.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Silber Preis?

Structural Deficit Provides a Foundation

Beneath the short-term turbulence, a compelling fundamental story supports the market. Silver is headed for its fifth consecutive annual supply deficit. Between 2021 and 2026, the cumulative shortfall is projected to reach 820 million ounces. Mine production remains stagnant at approximately 813 million ounces annually, with over 70% of this output mined only as a by-product of copper, lead, and zinc extraction.

Demand, conversely, continues to expand. The photovoltaic industry now consumes over 230 million ounces each year, while electric vehicles require between 25 and 50 grams of silver per unit. Despite the recent correction, silver maintains a year-to-date gain exceeding 25%, bolstered by its January peak near $120—a new all-time high.

Divergent Institutional Outlooks

Analyst projections for 2026 reveal a remarkably wide range of expectations. J.P. Morgan Global Research forecasts an annual average price of $81 per ounce, more than double its estimate for 2025. In a notably bullish outlier scenario, Bank of America maintains an exceptional target of $309. This prediction is based on a historical compression of the gold-to-silver ratio.

The coming weeks are likely to remain dominated by high volatility. The short-term trajectory will be dictated by whether the Iran conflict escalates or diplomatic channels gain traction. For the medium term, the fundamental supply shortage and robust industrial demand argue for higher price levels, provided broader fears of an economic downturn do not overwhelm the market.

Ad

Silber Preis Stock: Buy or Sell?! New Silber Preis Analysis from March 7 delivers the answer:

The latest Silber Preis figures speak for themselves: Urgent action needed for Silber Preis investors. Is it worth buying or should you sell? Find out what to do now in the current free analysis from March 7.

Silber Preis: Buy or sell? Read more here...