As the year draws to a close, XRP finds itself at a critical juncture, pulled by opposing market forces. Sustained institutional capital inflows and the absorption of supply by spot ETFs contrast with a price that remains stubbornly range-bound, hovering just above a key technical support level. The central question for investors is whether these robust fundamentals will ultimately catalyze a significant price appreciation.
Fundamental Ecosystem Growth Provides a Backdrop
Beyond the price chart, the XRP ecosystem has seen substantial development in 2025. The resolution of the protracted legal battle with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in August has allowed Ripple to accelerate its build-out of institutional-grade infrastructure.
A key development is the integration of the RLUSD stablecoin. Functioning as a regulation-compliant bridge between traditional fiat currencies and decentralized finance (DeFi) applications on the XRP Ledger (XRPL), it enhances the network’s practical utility. This bolsters the thesis of investors who view XRP not merely as a speculative instrument but as a foundational infrastructure asset.
Network performance remains solid, with transactions settling within 3 to 5 seconds—a competitive edge in payments. Daily active address counts are healthy, despite a minor dip over the weekend, a pattern typically attributed to seasonal and holiday-related effects.
A Shifting Regulatory Landscape
The regulatory overhang that long plagued XRP has largely cleared. Removing the uncertainty of the SEC lawsuit has fundamentally altered the asset’s perception, shifting market focus toward the broader political framework.
Attention is now centered on the U.S. Market Structure Bill. Historical precedent shows that legislative progress on this draft has repeatedly coincided with double-digit percentage price rallies. Further positive developments in the legislative process could therefore act as a catalyst for significant volatility.
Concurrently, the successful launch and operation of spot XRP ETFs send a strong signal to more conservative market participants. The consistent inflows and stable functioning of these products are interpreted by many as a form of regulatory endorsement, lowering the barrier to entry for institutional investors and supporting the long-term investment case.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying XRP?
On-Chain Data Reveals a Supply Squeeze
An examination of on-chain metrics reveals a compelling narrative. According to Glassnode data, XRP reserves held on centralized exchanges have plummeted to approximately 1.5 billion tokens—the lowest level in over a year. This marks a dramatic decline from the roughly 4 billion tokens held at the start of the year.
This drawdown is primarily attributed to the November launch of U.S.-based spot XRP ETFs. Since their introduction, these financial products are estimated to have accumulated around 750 million XRP. This creates a persistent demand channel that reduces freely available liquidity on the traditional spot market, exerting a price-stabilizing influence.
However, some analysts caution against oversimplifying this into a straightforward “supply shock” narrative. They point out that the XRP Ledger has traditionally exhibited high velocity and deep liquidity pools. Order books are considered relatively elastic, meaning they can absorb additional demand without necessarily triggering an immediate vertical price spike.
Technical Analysis Points to a Tense Equilibrium
At the start of the week, XRP trades near $1.90, positioning it slightly below the 50-day moving average of $2.07. The token has declined nearly 13% over the past 30 days and sits approximately 38% below its 52-week high. Simultaneously, it is trading just above its recent annual low, indicating a narrow range with an undetermined next directional move.
Short-term pressure is evident in key indicators. With a 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 28.8, XRP is technically in oversold territory. The $1.80 level is widely viewed as crucial support, serving as a key reference point for traders. As long as this level holds, technicians see a path for another attempt at the psychologically important $2.00 zone.
Sentiment and Forward-Looking Perspective
Current market sentiment is best characterized as cautiously optimistic. In the near term, factors like declining open interest on major exchanges and the price struggling below its 50-day average suggest hesitation among active traders. Yet, the combination of falling exchange balances, steady ETF demand, and stable network activity paints a picture of an underlying solid foundation.
The coming weeks will likely be decisive. The market will watch to see if support around $1.80 holds and whether new regulatory catalysts emerge from the U.S. Should the support zone remain intact and positive signals arrive from either legislation or continued ETF inflows, the probability of a retest of the $2.00 mark increases. Conversely, a clear break below support could open the door to further declines. However, any such downside would occur against a backdrop of structurally tightening supply, which may favor upward reversals over the medium term.
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