While Ripple secures a pivotal component for decentralized finance (DeFi) adoption, its native token’s price action remains frustratingly range-bound. The introduction of wrapped XRP (wXRP) promises to bridge the asset to major blockchain ecosystems like Ethereum and Solana. This development coincides with consistent ETF inflows and a notable decline in exchange reserves, creating a supportive structural backdrop. The critical market question now is whether this collection of bullish fundamentals can finally overpower a stubborn technical ceiling.

Institutional Flows and On-Chain Dynamics

Beyond the DeFi narrative, data from on-chain analytics and fund flows paint a compelling picture for XRP:

• Exchange-held XRP balances have contracted significantly, dropping from 3.95 billion to 2.6 billion tokens over the past 60 days. This drawdown tightens the immediately available supply on trading platforms.
• U.S. spot XRP ETFs are seeing consistent demand, recording weekly inflows exceeding $170 million with no reported outflows. These steady institutional investments provide underlying market support.
• Velocity on the XRP Ledger has reached approximately 0.0324, its highest level in 2025. This indicates tokens are changing hands more rapidly, signaling heightened liquidity and active use rather than passive holding.
• A notable pattern has emerged among larger traders: recent sessions saw inflows from major addresses running 54% above the weekly average. A significant volume spike of 172.8 million XRP—more than triple the typical daily volume—coincided with a test of an upper price resistance level and ultimately reversed the breakout attempt, highlighting persistent selling pressure from sizable holders.

wXRP: A Regulated Gateway to Multi-Chain DeFi

The launch of wrapped XRP (wXRP) by Hex Trust represents a strategic move to unlock new utility. This token is backed 1:1 by native XRP held in segregated institutional custody, enabling its use on foreign blockchains. Initial deployment will occur on Ethereum, Solana, Optimism, and HyperEVM networks, with more planned.

The initiative launches with over $100 million in Total Value Locked (TVL), ensuring meaningful initial liquidity for DeFi applications such as swaps, liquidity pools, and collateralized lending. Authorized dealers can mint and redeem wXRP through a regulated, automated process, eliminating the need for users to rely on unregulated third-party bridges.

RippleX views this project as a direct response to growing institutional demand to utilize XRP and its stablecoin, RLUSD, across multiple chains. Markus Infanger, SVP at RippleX, stated that wXRP fits “naturally” into the work surrounding RLUSD, offering a regulated DeFi entry point and a framework for managing cross-chain XRP exposure.

Technical Analysis: A Constricted Range with a Bearish Tilt

Despite these fundamental tailwinds, XRP’s price continues to tread water. The asset has been oscillating in a narrow band around the $2.00 level for weeks, establishing a clear pattern: buying interest emerges just above $2.00, while consistent selling pressure appears slightly above that zone.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying XRP?

Currently trading at $2.04, XRP sits roughly 33% below its 52-week high yet only marginally above its annual low, reflecting a prolonged consolidation phase with a slight downward bias. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 28.8 places the token in technically oversold territory, suggesting seller exhaustion but not yet triggering a definitive reversal.

The short-term chart structure remains neutral to slightly bearish. Any recovery attempt remains vulnerable to sell-offs beneath a well-defined resistance band. Market observers interpret repeated failed breakout attempts as distribution, not accumulation: larger addresses appear to use strength to reduce positions, while longer-term investors defend the area just above $2.00.

Macro Context and Key Levels to Watch

This token-specific struggle is occurring within a broadly supportive macro environment. Following the latest 25-basis-point rate cut from the U.S. Federal Reserve, major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum have posted solid gains. XRP has slightly lagged this rally, underperforming the broader market by about one percent, which underscores the unique technical resistance it faces.

Looking ahead, three key scenarios and price levels are in focus:

• Bullish Breakout: A daily close decisively above the defined resistance zone, supported by sustained high volume, would open a path toward higher price targets.
• Bearish Breakdown: A drop below recent local lows, situated just under $2.00, could trigger a sell-off toward the mid-$1.90 range.
• Compression Resolution: The multi-month triangular consolidation pattern is growing increasingly tight, which statistically precedes a more powerful directional move once one side gains clear dominance.

Conclusion: Strong Fundamentals Versus Technical Stalemate

Structurally, XRP benefits from multiple positive factors: the high-liquidity launch of wXRP, declining exchange supplies, robust ETF inflows, and a more actively utilized XRP Ledger. These developments expand use cases while simultaneously constraining freely available supply.

In the near term, however, chart mechanics dominate the narrative. As long as XRP remains capped below its key resistance, the situation is best described as a tactical range-bound movement with a downward lean, not a confirmed breakout. Only a clear, high-volume surge above this technical barrier would shift the picture, allowing the positive fundamental momentum to finally reflect in the price chart.

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