While XRP’s spot price struggles to gain momentum, a compelling divergence is unfolding beneath the surface. Strong institutional adoption and surging network usage are failing to translate into significant price appreciation, creating a puzzling scenario for market observers.
Institutional Adoption Accelerates with ETF Inflows
The institutional gateway for XRP is widening rapidly. The launch of the 21Shares XRP ETF (TOXR) on the Cboe BZX Exchange on December 11, 2025, marked the fifth spot XRP ETF to become available in the United States. This new fund features a total expense ratio (TER) of 0.30% and utilizes a multi-custody structure involving Coinbase, Anchorage Digital Bank, and BitGo. It launched with a significant seed investment of 100 million XRP (approximately $226 million) from Ripple Markets.
Demand for these products has been substantial. In under four weeks, U.S.-based spot XRP ETFs have attracted inflows nearing $954 million. Current data indicates these inflows are almost triple the volume seen by comparable Solana ETFs over the same period, signaling growing institutional acceptance of XRP as a core crypto asset.
On-Chain Metrics Paint a Picture of Strength
Concurrent with the ETF activity, the XRP Ledger (XRPL) is demonstrating remarkable vitality. Key on-chain metrics have hit record levels:
* More than 400 million XRP were moved within a single 24-hour period.
* Daily payment transactions have surged by 80%, now exceeding 1 million per day.
* Exchange balances have dropped sharply from 3.95 billion to 2.6 billion XRP, suggesting a movement of assets into long-term cold storage.
* Selling pressure from long-term holders declined by 49% last week.
Interestingly, despite this high network usage, daily fee revenue has plummeted by 89% from February’s peak to roughly 650 XRP. This is likely attributable to network efficiency improvements or a shift toward lower-fee transaction types. For the token’s price, the critical takeaways are the increased utility and the decreasing liquid supply on exchanges.
Price Action Remains Subdued Amid Consolidation
Contrasting the strong fundamentals, XRP’s price action tells a different story. The token is currently consolidating just above the $2.00 level. It has shed roughly 20% over the past month and trades approximately one-third below its 52-week high of $3.04. From a technical perspective, the market remains under pressure, with the price trading about 11% below the 50-day moving average of $2.27.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying XRP?
Market indicators reflect a tense but not yet broken state. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 28.8, placing it in oversold territory. This environment suggests a lack of buyer enthusiasm rather than a wave of capitulation, as stronger sell-offs have so far been avoided.
Regulatory Landscape and Supply Dynamics
On the regulatory front, clarity has improved since the conclusion of the SEC’s case against Ripple in August 2025. Market participants are now looking ahead to the anticipated “Clarity Act” legislative initiative in 2026, which is expected to provide a more definitive framework for digital assets.
A significant factor for future supply is Ripple’s escrow holdings, which contain approximately 34.4 billion XRP. Analysts are monitoring how the company manages these reserves, particularly in light of potential future liquidity requirements. Some scenarios suggest that up to 14 billion XRP might need to be restructured or strategically placed with institutional partners to comply with expected guidelines.
The Bull and Bear Case in Focus
The current market phase is defined by a clear split between positive and negative signals:
The Bullish Factors: Powerful ETF inflows, record XRPL activity, declining exchange reserves, and reduced selling from long-term holders.
The Bearish Factors: Price trading below key moving averages, an oversold RSI, and a substantial distance from yearly highs.
This configuration leads some analysts to view the period as a potential accumulation phase, with chart patterns reminiscent of those seen in 2017. However, the risk of a deeper correction remains if key support levels are breached. In the near term, the critical test is whether XRP can stabilize its consolidation above recent lows. The medium to long-term outlook, however, appears increasingly shaped by institutional demand and growing network adoption.
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