Amidst a backdrop of geopolitical tension, Bitcoin is charting its own course. As U.S. stock futures decline and oil prices surge past $100 per barrel following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the leading cryptocurrency has rallied to a one-month high. This move signals a growing decoupling from traditional risk assets.
A Diverging Performance and Derivative Dynamics
Since the onset of the Iran conflict, Bitcoin’s performance has notably outpaced both gold and equities, according to Fortune. This represents a significant shift in sentiment for a market that faced substantial selling pressure at the start of 2026. Supporting this momentum, nearly $700 million flowed into U.S.-based Bitcoin ETFs in March alone.
The derivatives market is providing additional tailwinds. On March 10th and 11th, funding rates on Binance dropped to unusually negative levels below -0.006%. Historically, such extreme readings have frequently preceded sharp counter-moves, and this instance indicated excessive short positioning that may now be unwinding.
The $75,000 Gamma Wall
The immediate technical focus, however, is a formidable barrier at the $75,000 price level. Analysts note that Bitcoin has recently reclaimed its 50-day moving average during European trading, a development viewed as confirmation of bullish momentum that could attract further buying interest.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Bitcoin?
The true challenge lies just above. Markus Thielen of 10x Research points out that options market makers hold approximately $3 billion in short-gamma positions centered around $75,000. These setups tend to amplify price movements in either direction. A decisive break above this level could force short sellers to cover their positions, potentially accelerating the rally. Conversely, a rejection at this resistance threatens a pullback below $70,000.
Mixed Macroeconomic Signals
Macroeconomic developments present a dual narrative. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a conditional allowance for purchasing Russian oil, a measure intended to curb rising prices. The news briefly sent oil down by about $2 per barrel and pulled Bitcoin toward $72,000.
Simultaneously, the bond market is flashing warning signs. The MOVE Index, which tracks expected volatility in U.S. Treasuries, surged by over 21% to 95 points on Thursday. This marks its largest single-day increase since October 2024. Rising bond volatility typically tightens global credit conditions and pressures risk-sensitive assets. Accompanying this, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbed to 4.27%.
Despite these crosscurrents, Bitcoin has demonstrated resilience. The coming 24 to 48 hours, with the $75,000 gamma wall in sight and key macroeconomic data releases pending, will be critical in determining whether the current recovery has lasting power.
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