Bitcoin extended its recent correction on Friday, trading around the $91,200 level. A sustained wave of selling in spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) is unsettling investors and serving as the primary pressure point. While short-term derivative positions are being unwound, institutional analysts are already shifting their focus toward regulatory progress and long-term price targets.
Institutional Analysis Remains Bullish Amid Weakness
Despite the current period of weakness, analysts at U.S. banking giant JPMorgan maintain a positive outlook. They point to an improved volatility profile relative to gold, using this comparison to derive a theoretical price target of approximately $170,000 for the next six to twelve months.
This scenario is bolstered by ongoing institutional adoption. A key milestone was the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) approval of spot trading on regulated exchanges. Furthermore, financial services provider Vanguard is now granting access to Bitcoin ETFs for its 50 million clients, a move that could generate fresh demand.
Sustained ETF Withdrawals Weigh on Sentiment
The immediate price pressure is largely attributed to persistent capital outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. The iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) from BlackRock is a particular focal point: market data indicates a single-day withdrawal of $113 million on Thursday alone. The fund is now facing its sixth consecutive week of outflows, which would mark its longest negative streak since trading began in early 2024. Over the past five weeks, total redemptions have exceeded $2.7 billion.
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This trend is directly reflected in market psychology. The “Fear and Greed” Index remains mired in “extreme fear” territory with a reading of 25. The cryptocurrency is currently priced at $91,371, representing a decline of nearly 27% from its 52-week high recorded in October.
Derivative Market Sees Risk Reduction
Parallel to the ETF outflows, a noticeable deleveraging is occurring in the derivatives market. Aggregate Open Interest for futures contracts has fallen from $25 billion to $21 billion within a month. Market observers interpret this as evidence that speculative excess is being purged from the system. While this exerts downward pressure on prices in the short term, it often establishes a healthier foundation for medium-term movement.
Despite this market clearing, a significant support pillar remains intact. The corporate treasury of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) is viewed as solid. With a holding of roughly 650,000 Bitcoin and cash reserves of $1.44 billion, analysts see no risk of distressed selling from this entity that could further burden the market.
Outlook: Key Technical Levels in Focus
For the near-term trajectory, the critical level to watch is $90,600. A breach here risks triggering a cluster of liquidations. On the upside, this week’s high near $94,200 acts as the initial resistance. Beyond ongoing ETF flow data, a potential catalyst in the coming weeks will be the pending MSCI decision regarding a possible index inclusion for Strategy.
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