Following a volatile period marked by significant pullbacks, Bitcoin investors were beginning to fear a sustained bear market. However, a dramatic turnaround emerged during the Thanksgiving weekend, with buyers staging an impressive return. The premier cryptocurrency has rebounded from lows around $80,000 and is now challenging key psychological price levels. The critical question for the market is whether this recovery is a fleeting rally or the commencement of a sustained push toward the coveted $100,000 milestone.
Macroeconomic Winds Shift in Bitcoin’s Favor
A primary catalyst for this renewed optimism stems from shifting expectations regarding U.S. monetary policy. Market participants are now pricing in an approximately 85% probability of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December—a substantial increase from the 50/50 odds seen just one week prior. This dramatic shift in sentiment was triggered by the latest employment data, which analysts suggest could provide the Fed with the necessary justification for a more accommodative stance.
This macroeconomic pivot ignited a powerful short squeeze across crypto markets. Traders who had bet on further price declines through short positions were caught off guard. The resulting forced buying to cover these positions provided significant upward momentum. Data indicates that over the last 24 hours, more than $323 million in leveraged positions were liquidated. This buying pressure propelled Bitcoin’s value to a current trading level of $90,827.00, allowing it to close the gap with its 50-day moving average.
Institutional Activity and Market Dynamics
On-chain activity and institutional flows provide further context for the rebound. After experiencing substantial outflows totaling nearly $3.8 billion throughout the month, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recently recorded net inflows of approximately $149 million. This reversal suggests that institutional capital is returning to the market.
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Concurrently, a notable transaction from SpaceX captured market attention. The aerospace company transferred Bitcoin holdings valued at over $100 million to the institutional trading platform Coinbase Prime. While such transfers often precede sales, the market absorbed this potential supply shock with notable resilience, indicating underlying strength in current demand.
Technical Structure Shows Signs of Stabilization
The recent market downturn appears to have served a cleansing function, particularly within the derivatives sector. Aggregate Open Interest for Bitcoin futures contracts plummeted from $45 billion to $28 billion, significantly reducing the market’s speculative leverage. On-chain metrics further reveal that short-term holders have largely realized their losses—a phenomenon that has historically often coincided with market bottoms.
From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin has managed to establish stability above crucial support zones. A decisive and sustained breakout above the resistance band spanning $92,000 to $95,000 is now viewed by many analysts as the key hurdle. If achieved, it could open a clearer path for upward movement. Given the historical tendency for strong performance in the post-Christmas period, the prospect of a “Santa Claus Rally” materializing this year is gaining traction among market observers.
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