This Friday presents a confluence of two significant events for Bitcoin: the quarterly quadruple witching expiration in traditional finance and a fundamental milestone in the digital asset’s own history. The intersection highlights a market caught between immediate derivative pressures and powerful long-term structural shifts.
A Tense Macro Backdrop Amplifies Derivative Expiries
Bitcoin’s increasing correlation with traditional risk assets means volatility in equity markets frequently spills over into crypto. The quadruple witching event, where four major derivative types—stock index futures, stock index options, single-stock options, and single-stock futures—expire simultaneously, represents a major source of such volatility. In March 2025 alone, contracts worth approximately $4.7 trillion are set to roll off.
Historical patterns suggest Bitcoin may face headwinds following such events. Market analyst Nic Puckrin of Coin Bureau notes that the asset has historically shown weakness for one to three weeks post-expiration, though he emphasizes the overarching macro environment remains the more critical driver.
That broader picture is currently fraught. The S&P 500 is approaching its longest weekly losing streak since March 2025, Brent crude oil has surged past $110 per barrel, and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has raised the 2026 inflation forecast to 2.7%. Against this backdrop, Bitcoin trades roughly 44% below its all-time high recorded in October 2025.
The pressure does not end with traditional markets. One week later, on March 27th, a major crypto derivatives expiry on the Deribit exchange will see $13.5 billion in contracts mature. Current positioning data indicates these are largely volatility plays rather than clear directional bets.
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The Structural Shift: Entering the Age of Extreme Scarcity
Amidst this short-term turbulence, a pivotal structural change occurred. On March 9th, the 20-millionth Bitcoin was mined at block height 939,999 by mining pool Foundry USA. This means over 95% of the cryptocurrency’s hard-capped 21 million supply is now in circulation.
The remaining one million coins will be issued over the next 114 years. Following the next halving event in 2028, the daily new supply will drop to just 225 BTC. This impending supply squeeze is compounded by the fact that a substantial portion of existing coins is effectively locked away.
Blockchain analysts estimate between 2.3 million and 3.7 million BTC are permanently inaccessible. This illiquid supply is bolstered by long-term holdings from major entities: the US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve holds 328,372 BTC, Strategy Inc. controls over 714,000 coins, and spot Bitcoin ETFs collectively custody 1.26 million BTC. Together, these holdings represent nearly eleven percent of the total circulating supply in long-term storage.
Regulatory Clarity Provides a Foundation
Adding to the long-term institutional narrative was a significant regulatory development this week. The SEC and CFTC jointly released a token taxonomy that explicitly classifies Bitcoin as a digital commodity—a distinct asset class, not a security. SEC Chairman Paul Atkins reinforced this, stating that “most crypto assets themselves are not securities.” This move establishes a clearer legal framework for institutional participation.
The short-term outlook remains clouded by macro pressures and derivative expirations. However, the fundamental supply-side dynamics are moving decisively in the opposite direction: diminishing new supply, growing institutional demand, and increasingly defined regulation are setting the stage for Bitcoin’s next chapter.
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