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Analysis
Analysis
As 2025 draws to a close, Bitcoin is sending conflicting signals to the market. Substantial outflows from U.S. spot ETFs are weighing heavily on the price. However, on-chain data reveals that large-scale investors are using the dip to accumulate holdings. The immediate future hinges on whether a crucial support level can hold, a factor that will significantly influence the digital asset’s trajectory heading into 2026.
The cryptocurrency is currently trading near $87,200, hovering just above its 52-week low and well below its early October peak. Technical indicators reflect a fragile state: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 38, signaling weakness, and the price remains below the 50-day moving average of approximately $91,700. This paints a picture of a market in a precarious consolidation phase.
A primary source of recent selling pressure is institutional. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs are experiencing significant year-end withdrawals, driven largely by tax-loss harvesting and portfolio de-risking.
The iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) from BlackRock and the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) have been notably impacted, registering substantial redemptions. Concurrently, many corporate treasuries are focusing on year-end balance sheet management rather than new Bitcoin allocations, a trend exacerbated by a market sentiment reading of “Extreme Fear.”
Blockchain activity tells a contrasting story. Addresses holding over 1,000 BTC—commonly referred to as “whales”—are reportedly using the price decline to build positions, according to on-chain metrics. These entities are acting as a counterforce to the ETF selling, absorbing a portion of the downward pressure.
An interesting volatility anomaly has also emerged. The realized volatility stands at about 37.8%, while the implied volatility from the options market is significantly lower at approximately 15.1%. Historically, such periods, where the market prices in calm despite observable swings, have often preceded more decisive price movements once expectations realign with reality.
From a chart perspective, two price zones are paramount:
The analysis differs across time frames. While the daily chart suggests a bearish descending triangle, some analysts point to a bullish ascending triangle formation on the 4-hour chart. Should trading volume return after the holidays, this could set the stage for a short squeeze—provided the key support holds.
A large batch of Bitcoin options expired on December 26. This expiration removed a significant volume of open contracts from the market, thereby weakening the “max pain” effect that had likely been suppressing prices below $90,000.
Nevertheless, pessimism remains dominant in sentiment gauges. The Fear & Greed Index reads 23, indicating pronounced risk aversion. While such periods of extreme fear have historically been used by contrarian investors to establish positions, the short-term technical trend remains clearly damaged.
Despite a weak finish to the year, the outlook for 2026 is not uniformly negative. On the macro front, monetary policy plays a role: the U.S. Federal Reserve recently injected over $2.5 billion in liquidity into the banking system—an environment that has historically been favorable for scarce assets like Bitcoin.
Expert opinions, however, are divided. Firms like Bitwise express optimism, anticipating positive impulses from clearer regulations and ongoing adoption. Other market participants foresee a year of tough consolidation, especially if macroeconomic conditions tighten again.
In the immediate term, the trend for Q1 2026 will likely be decided by whether the $85,000 support level holds and if the ETF outflows subside after the turn of the year.
As the final weekend of the year approaches, Ethereum presents a complex picture of conflicting market signals. The ecosystem is witnessing a pivotal clash between a new corporate focus on generating yield and a broader trend of institutional risk reduction. The outcome of this tension could set the tone for Ethereum’s price trajectory in the coming weeks.
A significant development emerged from Bitmine, the world’s largest corporate holder of Ethereum. The company has initiated a strategic pivot from passive holding to active yield generation. It has deposited 74,880 ETH, valued at approximately $219 million, into the Ethereum Beacon Chain to begin staking.
Bitmine’s CEO, Tom Lee, frames this move as the “Alchemy of 5%,” a strategy to leverage corporate treasury holdings for staking rewards. While the company’s proprietary staking infrastructure, MAVAN (Made in America Validator Network), is slated for launch in early 2026, this deposit signals an immediate shift. Bitmine appears unwilling to leave potential returns untapped.
The scale of Bitmine’s holdings underscores the potential impact of this strategy:
* Total Holdings: 4.066 million ETH (roughly 3.37% of the circulating supply)
* Total Value: Approximately $12.2 billion
* Potential Annual Yield: If the entire holding were staked, analyst estimates suggest annual rewards could exceed 126,800 ETH (around $371 million).
Lee maintains an optimistic outlook, suggesting this treasury utilization could act as a catalyst, potentially driving ETH’s price into a range of $7,000 to $9,000 by early 2026.
Contrasting this corporate optimism, traditional financial products are telling a different story. Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have experienced notable outflows since mid-December, with roughly $853.9 million withdrawn over a two-week period. Notably, BlackRock’s ETHA fund recently led these redemptions, indicating some institutional asset managers are de-risking their portfolios ahead of the year-end.
Market experts caution that persistent selling pressure from these products, without sufficient countervailing demand, could push Ethereum toward a support zone around $2,500.
However, on-chain data reveals a degree of underlying market strength. Sales around the $2,900 level have been largely absorbed by private investors and large “whale” addresses. This absorption has prevented a deeper correction so far, painting a picture of a cautious but not panicked market.
Despite the positive staking news, market sentiment remains tempered by ongoing concerns over leverage. High open interest in derivatives markets keeps the risk of cascading liquidations present, echoing a warning from Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin in August 2025.
Buterin highlighted that while the growing use of Ethereum as loan collateral demonstrates adoption, it can also create “fragile games.” He specifically flagged strategies where entities become highly leveraged against their ETH holdings as particularly risky. In such a scenario, a price decline of 30% to 90% could trigger chain reactions of forced selling and large-scale liquidations.
Bitmine’s spot-based holding and staking approach seems conservative by comparison. Nevertheless, the market remains sensitive to any developments affecting leverage ratios, especially while Ethereum struggles to reclaim the $3,000 level decisively.
Beyond short-term price action, the Ethereum network continues to solidify its role as decentralized finance’s foundational layer. Several structural developments support its long-term growth thesis:
* TVL Projection: Joseph Chalom of Sharplink Gaming anticipates the Total Value Locked (TVL) in DeFi protocols could grow tenfold by 2026, driven largely by institutional tokenization projects.
* Regulatory Developments: A legislative proposal in Arizona seeks to provide tax benefits for Ethereum transactions, aiming to boost local adoption and position the state as a crypto hub for 2026.
* Real-World Asset Dominance: Ethereum continues to lead in high-volume, institutional on-chain settlements, with over $18 billion in tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) currently on the network.
These factors underpin the argument that Ethereum’s value as an infrastructure protocol is growing, irrespective of near-term volatility.
The current technical landscape reflects the prevailing market tension. Ethereum is trading around $2,904, approximately 38% below its 52-week high of $4,689. It sits just above 5% from its recent annual low of $2,764. A Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 42 indicates a neutral-to-weak market condition, without clear oversold signals.
In the immediate term, focus centers on the defense of the $2,900 zone. A bullish scenario would see Bitmine’s staking initiative inspire imitation from other corporate treasuries. Such large-scale “staking” could reduce available supply, counteracting ETF outflows and creating room for a recovery toward $3,200.
Conversely, if outflows from products offered by firms like BlackRock and Fidelity persist, selling pressure on current support will intensify. A breakdown could open a path to the $2,660-$2,500 range, where market observers note a concentration of leveraged positions that could be liquidated. This weekend, therefore, hinges on whether the “yield narrative” championed by Bitmine proves powerful enough to overshadow the year-end risk and tax management dominating traditional finance.
As 2025 draws to a close, XRP presents a study in contrasts. While its price action appears subdued following a volatile summer, a closer examination of network activity and institutional flows reveals a far more resilient foundation. The current market valuation seems disconnected from the robust usage and growing infrastructure supporting the digital asset.
The digital currency XRP peaked in July 2025, reaching approximately $3.65. This surge was fueled by the final settlement in the protracted legal battle between Ripple and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Since that high, the market has entered a corrective phase. The price has retreated significantly, currently trading around $1.83.
Over the past month, XRP has declined by roughly 17%, sitting nearly 40% below its 52-week high. Recent trading has been comparatively calm, with the 30-day annualized volatility at 42.7%—a moderate level for a major cryptocurrency. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 28.8 indicates an oversold condition, suggesting that selling pressure may be waning. This technical picture aligns with a “Fear & Greed Index” score of 23 (Fear), reflecting continued caution among retail investors after an extended period of profit-taking.
Beneath the surface price weakness, key on-chain indicators point to sustained network utility.
A significant stabilizing force has emerged from institutional investment channels. The ecosystem of Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) linked to XRP, established in 2025, has become a major source of demand, largely independent of erratic spot market movements.
These persistent ETF inflows starkly contrast with the skeptical retail sentiment and provide crucial support above key price levels.
Within the XRP ecosystem, the USD-pegged stablecoin RLUSD has gained substantial traction. Since its broader rollout earlier in the year, its market capitalization has grown to nearly $1.3 billion by late December.
RLUSD now serves as a vital liquidity pool for decentralized applications on the XRP Ledger, particularly for automated market makers (AMMs). This development reduces reliance on bridged assets from other chains and strengthens the native DeFi infrastructure on the XRPL.
The resolution of the SEC lawsuit in August 2025 marked a pivotal turning point. The legal clarity has largely dispelled the former “regulatory overhang” that clouded the asset’s prospects.
For banks and financial institutions, this means they can now explore and implement XRPL-based settlement solutions without the imminent threat of regulatory action. Market observers cite this newfound clarity as a primary driver behind the consistent inflows into XRP ETFs.
From a chart perspective, XRP is consolidating within a symmetrical triangle pattern on the daily timeframe, presenting a defined, albeit waiting, game.
At its current price of $1.83, XRP trades just above its recent 52-week low of $1.81 and roughly 13% below its 50-day moving average of $2.10—hallmarks of an advanced correction phase.
As of December 27, 2025, XRP exemplifies a classic divergence between short-term price action and underlying network strength. The price near yearly lows, an oversold RSI, and a cautious market mood reflect immediate skepticism. However, this contrasts sharply with approximately 170,000 daily active users, over $1.25 billion in ETF holdings, and an expanding ecosystem centered on the RLUSD stablecoin.
The path forward will likely be determined by three critical factors: the defense of the $1.80 support level, the continuation of strong ETF inflows, and the maintenance of robust XRP Ledger usage—as measured by active addresses and RLUSD volume—into the new year.
The Ethereum market finds itself at a critical juncture. A historic day of derivatives expiries is colliding with significant on-chain shifts, creating a complex landscape for the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency. With its price hovering just below the psychologically important $3,000 level, conflicting signals are emerging from short-term traders, ETF flows, and large-scale investors, calling into question the stability of the current equilibrium.
Today’s market activity is dominated by an extraordinary event in the crypto derivatives space. Data from major exchanges indicates that cryptocurrency options with a notional value between $27 and $28 billion are set to expire—a record volume that has earned the moniker “Boxing Day” within financial circles.
The stakes for Ethereum are particularly high. Approximately 1.25 to 1.28 million ETH options are reaching their maturity date. Depending on the distribution of strike prices, this represents a nominal volume ranging from $3.4 to $6 billion. Key metrics from the market structure reveal:
* Max Pain Point: $3,100
* Put/Call Ratio: 0.45, indicating a significantly higher number of call positions than puts, which suggests a relatively optimistic positioning among open interest.
Currently trading at $2,906.28, ETH sits below this max pain threshold and remains roughly 38% away from its 52-week high. Analysts, including those from Glassnode, posit that the unwinding of these substantial options positions could remove a “structural cap” on volatility. Once market makers reduce their gamma exposure, the recently constrained trading range may give way to more dynamic price action heading into the new year.
A striking contrast is visible between the sentiment of smaller investors and the behavior of major market participants.
Current Glassnode on-chain data shows that roughly 40% of the circulating ETH supply is held at an on-paper loss. The proportion of profitable coins has declined from 75% to 59%. This indicates that many investors who entered during the peak periods of 2024 and 2025 are now sitting on notable losses. Historically, phases with such a high level of unrealized losses have often been associated with capitulation events or significant market inflection points, highlighting subdued retail sentiment and explaining the sensitivity of short-term holders to price pullbacks.
Conversely, activity from large investors paints a different picture. Several notable transactions have been recorded in the past 24 hours and weeks:
* A withdrawal of 89,312 ETH (worth approximately $264 million) from the Korean exchange Bithumb to a private wallet. Such substantial outflows from trading platforms are typically interpreted as a move toward long-term custody.
* A whale address identified as “Trend Research” purchased around 46,379 ETH earlier this week and now holds nearly 580,000 ETH.
* Another major address has accumulated ETH valued at over $130 million across the past three weeks.
This pattern hints at a redistribution: impatient or uncertain holders are offloading positions while well-capitalized addresses are systematically accumulating. Market observers interpret this as preparation for a potential recovery following the current corrective phase.
From a chart perspective, Ethereum is caught in a tight consolidation pattern, described by experts as a symmetrical triangle. The round $3,000 figure acts as a central barrier, with low liquidity during the holiday week and profit-taking preventing a sustained breakout to the upside.
Key technical levels:
* Support: A major support zone exists around $2,798. A breakdown below this area could, according to analyst assessments, trigger further selling pressure and bring targets near $2,681 or lower into play.
* Resistance: The $3,000 mark remains the decisive resistance on the upside. A clear breakout above the triangle’s upper boundary would make subsequent targets around $3,345 and higher levels in early 2026 technically plausible.
The institutional segment is currently applying pressure. On December 25, U.S. spot ETFs for both Bitcoin and Ethereum recorded cumulative net outflows of about $232 million. Grayscale’s ETHE product was particularly notable, with outflows of roughly $57 million, continuing a two-week streak of negative ETF flows. This trend amplifies short-term selling pressure and explains why the price has struggled to establish a clear upward trend despite stable demand from large investors.
Beyond short-term fluctuations, Ethereum’s technological roadmap remains clearly defined. Developers have planned several major protocol adjustments for 2026, aimed at further scaling the network and improving its efficiency.
The centerpiece is the “Glamsterdam” hard fork, scheduled for mid-2026. It is expected to:
* Implement Enshrined Proposer-Builder Separation (ePBS) to embed the separation of block proposal and construction directly into the protocol.
* Raise the gas limit to 200 million.
* Accelerate the transition toward Zero-Knowledge Proofs (ZK) to lower hardware requirements for validators.
These initiatives are designed to enable Ethereum to handle up to 10,000 transactions per second and solidify the platform’s position as the leading DeFi ecosystem. The network already secures approximately 54% of global stablecoin volume—an indicator of its deep integration within the financial sector.
In the immediate term, the market is being shaped by two primary factors: the record options expiry with its potential for increased volatility, and noticeable ETF outflows adding weight to the sell-side. Simultaneously, the on-chain perspective reveals a classic late-cycle configuration: numerous retail investors are holding at a loss, while whales and large addresses are expanding their holdings.
When combined with the clearly outlined upgrade schedule for 2026, the overall picture is one where short-term pressure competes with a still-intact long-term growth narrative. The coming days will likely reveal which side gains the upper hand following the options expiry.
While Cardano’s ADA token continues to navigate a severe corrective phase, a classic technical formation on its chart is hinting at a potential reversal. The digital asset has shed nearly two-thirds of its value since October, with the $0.35 support level now under threat. However, this price decline is unfolding alongside the emergence of a bullish divergence and significant developments within its ecosystem, including the strategic pivot toward the Midnight protocol.
Despite persistent weakness, Friday’s trading revealed a compelling technical picture. ADA is forming a falling wedge pattern on its daily chart—a formation analysts often interpret as a precursor to a trend reversal. Current support is clustered between $0.34 and $0.35. A decisive break below this zone could see the price test the psychologically significant $0.30 level.
On the upside, the first major resistance awaits at $0.39. Market experts suggest that a confirmed breakout above this barrier could trigger a rally toward $0.51, representing a potential gain of approximately 45%. Adding credence to this optimistic view is the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is displaying a bullish divergence. This indicates that selling pressure is waning even as prices continue to fall.
Sentiment in the derivatives market tells a more cautious story. Open interest for ADA futures contracts has plummeted from $1.72 billion in October to roughly $630 million currently. This reduction in leveraged positions suggests traders are exercising restraint heading into the new year. Conversely, spot trading volume surged by 96% to $677 million, signaling an intense battle between buyers and sellers at these price levels.
Network activity presents a mixed bag. The Total Value Locked (TVL) within Cardano’s decentralized finance ecosystem has declined to $215.5 million, a notable drop from its August high of $544 million. The network’s stablecoin capitalization has also contracted, now standing at $37.68 million.
A key positive signal comes from exchange flows. Data shows net outflows of around $2 million worth of ADA from exchanges daily. Such movements typically indicate accumulation, as investors transfer holdings to private wallets for long-term storage, thereby reducing immediate sell-side pressure.
The broader strategic focus for Cardano is firmly on the development of the Midnight protocol. Founder Charles Hoskinson, in a December 25 statement, described it as a “Manhattan Project for data-protecting technology, chain abstraction, and smart compliance.” He is currently dedicating efforts to producing 80 to 100 pages of technical documentation daily for internal workshops scheduled in January 2026.
Positioned as a data-protection layer for Cardano, Midnight will feature its own token, NIGHT, designed to complement rather than replace ADA. Interestingly, while ADA struggles, the NIGHT token has shown relative strength. It is trading at $0.07676 with a market capitalization of $1.27 billion and posted gains of nearly 20% over the past week.
The regulatory landscape in Europe is adding urgency to these developments. The Lithuanian Central Bank has issued warnings to crypto service providers, noting that operations without authorization after December 31, 2025, could result in severe penalties, including potential prison sentences. This looming deadline underscores the relevance of Cardano’s “smart compliance” focus through the Midnight protocol.
All eyes are now on the $0.39 resistance level. Reclaiming this price point would confirm the bullish falling wedge breakout and open the path for a recovery. Should ADA fail to overcome this hurdle, the bearish scenario targeting $0.30 remains in play. In that case, the mainnet launch of Midnight in 2026 could serve as a fundamental catalyst for a longer-term trend reversal.