Stay ahead with the latest cryptocurrency news and analysis
Blockchain
Analysis
Analysis
Blockchain
Analysis
Analysis
As 2025 draws to a close, Bitcoin is navigating its final weeks with significant volatility. A complex picture is emerging, shaped by macroeconomic signals from Japan, record-breaking on-chain valuations, and a tense derivatives landscape. The core question facing investors is whether the current period of weakness is merely a technical correction or an early sign of more profound demand cooling.
The digital asset is currently trading near $88,155, approximately 29% below its October peak. Short-term pressure remains evident, with a decline of over 5% in the last 30 days. The price sits roughly 6.7% below its 50-day moving average, accompanied by a relatively weak Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 38.1.
One key pillar of stability is the realized market cap, a valuation metric that weights each Bitcoin transaction at its last transacted price. This figure has reached an all-time high of approximately $1.125 trillion. Notably, it has continued to climb despite a price correction exceeding 30% since October. This trend suggests fresh capital has entered the ecosystem, with many coins changing hands at higher price levels.
This underlying on-chain structure points to a fundamentally intact bull market backdrop, even as the spot price has struggled for weeks. In essence, the foundational capital base appears more robust than a superficial glance at the price chart might indicate.
Conversely, network activity presents a more subdued picture. The 7-day average of active addresses has fallen to around 660,000—the lowest level since December 2024, when speculation surrounding Ordinals and Runes briefly drove a traffic surge. Network engagement has noticeably cooled since then.
This reduced on-chain usage directly impacts miner revenues. Their daily income has decreased from about $50 million in the third quarter to roughly $40 million. While not yet an acute earnings crisis, this puts pressure on mining margins, forcing operators to seek greater efficiency or consider consolidation.
The recent upward move was triggered by the market’s surprisingly robust response to the Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision. Despite raising rates to their highest level in three decades—traditionally a signal for increased risk aversion—Bitcoin posted significant gains within hours. Nasdaq-100 futures also rose in parallel, while the Yen weakened. This suggests the rate hike was largely anticipated, prompting traders to add to long positions.
Data from the derivatives market indicates the movement was primarily fueled by leveraged long bets. The aggregate funding rate climbed to its highest level since late November, signaling that long traders are willing to pay premiums to short positions. This reflects a market that is optimistically positioned in the near term but remains vulnerable, where any setback could trigger a chain reaction of liquidations.
Volatility persists at elevated levels. This week saw intraday swings in market capitalization amounting to billions, followed by forced liquidations on both sides of the market. The annualized 30-day volatility reading of nearly 38% fits this image of a turbulent, yet not panic-driven, environment.
A major headwind is the substantial “overhead supply.” Dense clusters of sell-side interest exist between $93,000 and $120,000, where many participants entered the market and now await exit opportunities. This supply wall currently acts as a ceiling for any recovery rallies.
The amount of coins held at a loss has risen to 6.7 million BTC, the highest level this cycle. This means roughly 23.7% of the circulating supply is “underwater,” comprising 10.2% held by long-term investors and 13.5% by short-term holders. This creates an environment where any strong upward move carries the potential for profit-taking and the closing of loss-making positions, making it harder to establish sustained trending action.
The derivatives market amplifies this pressure. On December 26, 2025, options contracts with a notional value of approximately $23 billion are set to expire—more than half of the total open interest on the Deribit platform. Positioning is clearly defensive, with a heavy concentration of put options around the $85,000 strike price. This level could act as a magnetic zone for the spot price in the lead-up to expiry.
Market observers, including Nick Forster of Derive.xyz, note that 30-day volatility is moving back toward 45%, while options skews remain around -5% for both short and longer terms. This signals the market is pricing in further downside risk for the first half of 2026, valuing protection against declines more highly than opportunities for sudden rallies.
On the corporate front, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) continues to be a significant buyer. Between December 8 and 14, the company purchased Bitcoin worth approximately $980.3 million. Strategy’s total holdings now stand at 671,268 BTC, acquired at an average price of around $74,972 per coin—a total investment of just over $50.3 billion.
CEO Michael Saylor interprets the market’s relatively muted reaction to these large purchases as a sign of Bitcoin’s growing maturity. He emphasizes that a truly resilient “digital capital network” should not be swayed by individual actors. Long-term, he projects annual value appreciation of about 30% over the next two decades—an ambitious assumption that underscores the perceived strength of institutional commitment.
Meanwhile, CoinMarketCap’s “Altcoin Season” indicator, with a reading of 14 out of 100, signals clear Bitcoin dominance in the current cycle. Capital rotation into smaller cryptocurrencies is at its weakest point in some time. While Ethereum has shown periods of relative strength and marginally outperformed Bitcoin on Friday morning, its ETH/BTC ratio trended downward over the week. The market remains far from a broad-based altcoin rally.
On-chain analysis suggests a massive support band exists between $80,000 and $83,000. This zone converges three key cost levels:
* The True Market Mean near $81,000
* The average acquisition price for U.S. spot ETFs at approximately $83,844
* The 2024 volume-weighted average price near $83,000
This area has historically served as structural support during pullbacks and will likely prove decisive in the coming days, especially around the options expiry. On the upside, the zones near $93,000 and the short-term holder cost basis of approximately $101,500 represent key hurdles. Until these levels are reclaimed, the scope for a sustained upward move remains limited.
In summary, Bitcoin finds itself in a tense equilibrium. While its fundamental capital base appears sturdy, weaker network activity, substantial supply pressure above current prices, and overtly bearish derivatives signals create near-term headwinds. The options expiry on December 26th is poised to be a critical test of whether the market can defend the $80,000 to $83,000 support zone, thereby laying the groundwork for a more stable position as 2026 begins.
As 2025 draws to a close, Ethereum finds itself at a pivotal juncture, caught between immediate market pressures and undeniable long-term expansion. While macroeconomic signals and fund flows point to near-term uncertainty, the underlying network continues to evolve at a remarkable pace. This analysis explores the forces shaping Ethereum’s current trajectory.
Contrasting the broader market caution, one significant player is demonstrating pronounced confidence. BitMine Immersion Technologies, recognized as one of the globe’s largest holders of ETH in its treasury, has continued its assertive accumulation strategy. Blockchain data from December 17 indicates the company purchased Ethereum valued at approximately $140 million.
This recent acquisition brings BitMine’s total holdings to nearly 3.9 million ETH, with an estimated worth of $11.6 billion. A staggering 407,331 ETH have been added to its reserves in the past 30 days alone, signaling a clear long-term bullish stance despite recent price weakness.
In a countervailing trend, spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds have recorded net outflows for six consecutive trading sessions. Although cumulative net inflows remain strongly positive at around $12.3 billion, the recent withdrawals of about $22.53 million reflect a more cautious institutional positioning.
A telling comparison emerges with Bitcoin ETFs, which attracted $457 million in inflows on December 18. This divergence suggests a potential “flight to quality,” where institutional capital favors Bitcoin over Ethereum during periods of heightened market uncertainty.
Ethereum’s price, currently near $2,950, sits substantially below its annual peak and is down roughly 37% from its 52-week high. A decline of almost 9% over the preceding week underscores the prevailing headwinds.
A primary catalyst is the shifting global interest rate landscape. The Bank of Japan raised its benchmark rate to 0.75%, marking its highest level in over 25 years, and hinted at further tightening. Historically, such moves pressure risk assets as yen carry trades unwind, pulling capital from speculative segments like cryptocurrencies.
Attention also remains fixed on the U.S. Federal Reserve. While the latest U.S. inflation data came in softer than anticipated, it persists above the Fed’s 2% target. This environment of moderating—yet unresolved—inflation fuels uncertainty, which directly translates to volatility in crypto markets.
Fundamentally, the Ethereum network is broadcasting robust health signals. The completion of the Fusaka upgrade on December 3 represents the most significant Layer-1 change since the Pectra update. Key technical enhancements include:
* An increase in the block gas limit from 45 million to 150 million units, substantially expanding transaction capacity.
* The introduction of PeerDAS (Peer Data Availability Sampling) to reduce bandwidth requirements for validators.
* The implementation of Verkle Trees to store blockchain state more compactly and accelerate verification processes.
These improvements are designed to boost scalability and reduce costs, particularly benefiting the Layer-2 ecosystems built atop Ethereum.
On-chain metrics depict a lively and growing ecosystem. The total value locked (TVL) in decentralized finance protocols stands at approximately $78.1 billion. The network processes about 1.56 million transactions daily, with a daily transaction volume nearing $7.8 billion.
The network added 188,340 new addresses within a 24-hour period, and the number of active addresses has grown by 25% year-over-year. Notably, daily stablecoin transfer volume on Ethereum reaches about $85 billion, a powerful indicator of its central role as a settlement layer within the crypto economy.
Adoption by traditional finance continues to advance. JPMorgan has launched a tokenized money market fund on the Ethereum blockchain. Meanwhile, SoFi Technologies is developing its own Ethereum-based stablecoin for trading and payments. Such initiatives reinforce Ethereum’s position as the preferred blockchain for tokenization and institutional-grade financial products.
From a technical perspective, conditions remain tense. A bearish flag pattern has emerged on the daily chart. The price is trading below both its 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages, as well as beneath the 50% Fibonacci retracement level measured from the August high.
Key levels to watch include:
* Support around $2,622 (the November 2025 low).
* The psychologically significant zone near $2,500.
On the upside, $3,000 acts as the first major hurdle, followed by the weekly resistance level around $3,266.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 42 indicates a weakened but not yet oversold market. The price’s position, over 7% below the 50-day moving average, emphasizes the current downward pressure.
Sentiment indicators paint a mixed picture. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains in cautious territory, while declining open interest in futures points to a reduction in speculative leveraged positions.
However, data from Coinbase reveals buyer dominance over the past 24 hours, with 68% of participants (33,131 buyers vs. 9,735 sellers) on the buying side. Over $162 million worth of ETH perpetual futures positions were liquidated, with roughly $130 million of that from long positions. This suggests previous over-leveraging, whose unwinding has contributed to recent price volatility.
In summary, Ethereum is currently a tale of two narratives colliding: macro-driven uncertainty reflected in ETF outflows and a technically challenged price chart, versus a fundamentally robust network experiencing major upgrades, high DeFi activity, and increasing institutional use.
This tension is starkly visible in the contrast between the aggressive buying by treasury holders like BitMine and the cautious flows from ETF investors. The trajectory for early 2026 will likely hinge on three critical factors: the Federal Reserve’s ongoing communication on interest rates, the future policy path of the Bank of Japan, and the continued momentum of DeFi and tokenization development on the Ethereum network.
The XRP token finds itself at a pivotal moment. Having recovered from Thursday’s lows near $1.80, the digital asset now trades around $1.87, marking a gain exceeding 4%. This intraday bounce, however, tells only part of the story. Beneath recent price pressure, two countervailing trends are emerging: sustained growth in wallet adoption and the approaching resolution of long-standing regulatory questions.
XRP’s trading session began weakly in Europe before pivoting upward during U.S. market hours. A notable surge occurred around 3:25 UTC, where nearly 19 million tokens moved across exchanges within a single minute—a volume indicative of institutional-sized orders. This activity propelled the price past the $1.84 resistance level, which has now transitioned into a short-term support zone.
Despite this push, overall trading volume remained subdued, suggesting larger market participants are exercising caution. Further upside faces immediate supply pressure in the $1.90 to $1.93 range, where sellers have consistently emerged.
Contrasting sharply with a price decline of approximately 50% since its July peak of $3.66, the XRP Ledger tells a story of robust expansion. The count of wallets holding a balance has reached 7.41 million, representing a 29% increase over the past year. Significantly, 710,000 new addresses have been added since the July high alone.
Comparative Wallet Growth:
– XRP: 7.41 million (+10.6% since July peak)
– Ethereum: 167.96 million (Rank 1)
– Bitcoin: 57.62 million (Rank 2)
– Dogecoin: 8.13 million (Rank 4)
Historically, such a divergence between network growth and price performance has often preceded recovery phases, indicating accumulation during consolidation periods.
Institutional interest continues to materialize. VivoPower announced this week a collaboration with Lean Ventures to source up to $300 million in Ripple stock for South Korean investors. While this capital does not flow directly into XRP, the transaction provides involved parties indirect exposure to nearly one billion dollars in Ripple-related assets. This move underscores ongoing institutional positioning within the Ripple ecosystem, even amid the token’s technical price weakness.
Potentially the most significant catalyst on the horizon involves regulatory clarity. David Sacks, the White House Crypto Czar, confirmed this week that the markup phase for the Clarity Bill is scheduled for January 2026. This legislation aims to establish clear rules for banks handling crypto assets.
For XRP, the implications could be substantial: classification as a commodity rather than a security, oversight by the CFTC instead of the SEC, and a consequent reduction in regulatory uncertainty. The downstream effects range from streamlined ETF approvals to broader adoption by financial institutions for cross-border payments.
XRP is currently consolidating just below the $1.87 level. A sustained breakout above $1.93 would constitute the first bullish signal in weeks and potentially open a path toward $2.00. Conversely, failure to maintain momentum risks a retreat to the trading band between $1.73 and $1.84.
The signals are mixed. Underlying network strength is building, institutions are engaging, and regulatory clarity is on the calendar. Yet, without a confirmed increase in trading volume, the current recovery remains fragile. The coming weeks may well set the direction for the next major move.
The Cardano blockchain finds itself navigating a period of significant transition. Its native token, ADA, has faced substantial selling pressure, shedding more than half its value in recent weeks to trade around $0.36. This decline unfolds even as the ecosystem experiences a surge of activity triggered by the launch of a new privacy-focused token, placing the network at a pivotal technical and market juncture.
ADA’s market performance has been challenging. Since the start of the year, the token’s value has fallen by approximately 55%, with a 59% drop recorded over the past three months. Despite this, Cardano maintains a position within the cryptocurrency top ten by market capitalization, which currently fluctuates between $12.7 billion and $14.7 billion.
Technical analysts are closely watching a key support band between $0.36 and $0.38. A decisive break below this level could, according to market observer Ali Martinez, open the path toward the $0.29 mark. Broader technical indicators, including the SuperTrend on higher timeframes, have turned bearish, confirming a breakdown from its previous trading channel.
An intriguing on-chain dynamic emerges beneath the surface: while retail sentiment appears increasingly negative, data reveals accumulation patterns among wallets holding larger balances. This suggests that some larger-scale investors may be viewing the current prices as an opportunity, potentially indicating institutional confidence in Cardano’s long-term fundamentals.
In early December, the launch of NIGHT—the native token for Midnight, a privacy-centric Cardano sidechain—catalyzed a wave of network engagement. The token’s value doubled rapidly, approaching a $1 billion valuation shortly after its debut. Major exchanges including OKX and Bybit moved quickly to list NIGHT, with daily trading volume temporarily exceeding $1.67 billion.
This event had a measurable impact on the broader Cardano network. Over 131,000 Cardano blockchain transactions have since involved the NIGHT token. Furthermore, average daily volumes on Cardano-based decentralized exchanges (DEXs) increased by two to three times in the wake of the launch.
Midnight’s technological proposition is central to its appeal. The sidechain employs zero-knowledge proofs and a dual architecture designed to separate private and public data. It is built using Compact, a TypeScript-inspired smart contract language intended to be accessible to developers beyond cryptography experts.
Cardano’s underlying infrastructure recently demonstrated its resilience. On November 21st, a faulty transaction caused a temporary chain partition. However, as Giorgio Zinetti, CTO of the Cardano Foundation, reported, block production continued uninterrupted. The network’s stakeholder community and developers coordinated a resolution within 14 hours, with the Ouroboros consensus mechanism successfully restoring the canonical chain.
Looking ahead, the network is preparing for an upgrade to Protocol Version 11. This intra-era hard fork is designed to enhance Plutus performance, ledger consistency, and node security without necessitating a full era transition.
Beyond short-term price action, several developments highlight ongoing ecosystem growth. In India, ADA ranks among the ten most-held cryptocurrencies, positioned ahead of competitors like Solana and Polygon. Project Catalyst Fund15, Cardano’s community innovation fund, has 761 proposals currently in the community review phase. Additionally, the Cardano Foundation has delegated 140 million ADA to seven developer and builder DReps (Delegate Representatives), with a further 220 million ADA scheduled for delegation in early 2026.
Some analysts challenge the narrative of stagnation. One researcher, Dr. Cuadrado, notes that while ADA constitutes only 0.55% of the top 20 crypto index, it has survived every bear market since its launch. He draws a comparison to Amazon stock during the dot-com crisis—a fundamentally strong asset that was severely undervalued at the time.
The coming weeks will reveal whether the combination of Midnight’s privacy innovation, core protocol improvements, and strengthened governance mechanisms can counteract the current market weakness. For now, all eyes remain fixed on that crucial $0.36 support zone as the immediate benchmark for network sentiment.
Silver’s Unprecedented Rally: A Perfect Storm of Scarcity and Speculation
Silver is no longer content to follow in gold’s shadow. The white metal has broken free, embarking on a spectacular, self-sustained rally that is outpacing even its historically strong yellow counterpart. This surge is more than just speculative fervor; it is fundamentally anchored in a tangible physical shortage gripping global industry.
A Market Powered by Structural Deficit
The core driver of this price explosion is a deep and persistent supply-demand imbalance. For four consecutive years, global consumption has outstripped new supply, creating a structural market deficit. This gap is being dramatically widened by voracious industrial demand, particularly from the photovoltaic sector and the booming artificial intelligence industry, which are consuming vast quantities for chip and data center production.
This relentless physical demand is colliding with rapidly depleting stockpiles in commodity exchange warehouses. The situation is further intensified by investors seeking refuge in hard assets. The result is a classic market squeeze, where the sheer lack of available physical metal is becoming the primary price determinant.
Technical Strength and Record Proximity
The technical picture underscores remarkable bullish momentum. As trading concluded for the week, spot silver was quoted at $66.03 per troy ounce, consolidating at an extremely elevated level. This price action follows a new 52-week high of $66.90 reached just on December 17. The current price sits a mere 1.29% below that peak, signaling sustained buyer control.
The scale of the move is striking: over the past 30 trading sessions, silver has advanced by 29.32 percent. Market participants are treating any minor pullback as an immediate buying opportunity to gain exposure to the upward trend. This performance is rapidly correcting the metal’s historical undervaluation relative to gold.
Key Market Data:
* Current Price: $66.03 (uptrend firmly intact)
* Recent Momentum: A 29.32% gain over the last 30 days
* Year-to-Date High: $66.90 (recorded Wednesday, December 17)
* Market Volatility: Annualized volatility stands at 36.89%, indicating continued high price action
Macroeconomic Winds Provide Further Fuel
Adding a powerful tailwind to the physical shortage is a shifting macroeconomic landscape. Recent U.S. inflation data has bolstered market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in the coming year, 2026. Since silver offers no yield, declining real interest rates significantly enhance its appeal as a non-interest-bearing asset.
The confluence of a tangible physical deficit and supportive monetary policy creates an ideal environment for sustained price appreciation. As long as rampant industrial demand meets such a constrained supply, the path of least resistance remains pointed upward. The fundamental scarcity offers little room for a meaningful or prolonged price relaxation. The hunt for new all-time highs is decisively underway.