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Blockchain
Blockchain
Blockchain
Blockchain
Blockchain
Blockchain
As gold and silver scale unprecedented peaks, drawing investors toward traditional safe havens, Bitcoin continues its struggle to find a solid footing. The premier cryptocurrency is experiencing its most substantial outflows from exchange-traded funds in nearly a year, coupled with a noticeable pullback from institutional players. Growing market unease ahead of the impending Federal Reserve interest rate decision raises questions about whether the anticipated crypto winter of 2026 could intensify.
The divergence between asset classes is striking. Gold has surged past the $5,000 per ounce milestone for the first time, while Bitcoin faces persistent selling pressure. Market analysts largely attribute this split to prevailing macroeconomic uncertainty. Robust U.S. economic indicators have severely diminished hopes for an imminent Fed rate cut, with market pricing now suggesting a near 97% probability that the central bank will hold rates steady at its meeting this week.
Further weighing on risk sentiment is the political stalemate in Washington. The looming threat of a partial government shutdown by January 31st is adding to investor anxiety. Within this climate, capital is fleeing risk assets: spot Bitcoin ETFs witnessed outflows of approximately $1.3 billion last week, marking the most significant weekly withdrawal since February 2025.
Sentiment is not the only area showing weakness; fundamental on-chain data is also flashing cautionary signals. A report from investment manager VanEck highlights declining user numbers and transaction volumes. A particularly notable trend is emerging within the mining sector, where the network’s hash rate—a measure of total computational power—is undergoing its most prolonged sustained decline since early 2024.
This shift is not solely driven by Bitcoin’s lower price. Analysts are observing a strategic pivot among miners. Many operators are increasingly redirecting their computational capacity toward high-performance computing (HPC) applications for artificial intelligence, which currently promise more stable and higher returns per unit of energy compared to cryptocurrency mining.
Despite the short-term pressures, there are glimmers of long-term conviction. The company Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, used the price dip as an opportunity to add over 25,000 Bitcoin to its corporate treasury holdings. Furthermore, so-called “whales”—large investors holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC—now collectively control assets worth roughly $130 billion.
From a chart perspective, the situation remains tense. Technical analysts at Swissblock warn that recent price action has reinforced a bearish scenario. Trading at $88,347.00, Bitcoin continues to operate well below its 50-day and 100-day moving averages.
Two critical price levels now dictate the immediate technical outlook. On the downside, the zone around $84,500 is viewed as crucial support. A sustained break below this area could, according to experts, trigger an extended correction toward the $74,000 region. To repair the technical damage and shift momentum, bulls would need to propel the price above a key resistance level at $94,500.
The landscape for XRP has transformed following years overshadowed by its legal battle with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. However, a new set of critical junctures now approaches. With pending U.S. legislation, steady ETF inflows, and Ripple’s own banking ambitions in play, market participants are weighing whether these factors can propel the asset from its current consolidation. The immediate answer appears to hinge squarely on political developments.
Trading just above its annual low, XRP’s price of approximately $1.91 remains well below its 52-week high of $3.04. A Relative Strength Index reading of 28.8 indicates a short-term oversold condition, suggesting the asset is under technical pressure but may have room for a corrective bounce.
Recent volatility followed a decline from levels above $2.30 in early January. This creates a mixed picture: the chart appears burdened, yet several fundamental trends provide underlying support.
A potential near-term catalyst originates from the U.S. Senate. The Agriculture Committee has rescheduled its “markup” session for the comprehensive Market Structure Bill to Thursday, January 29, 2026. This procedural meeting involves a line-by-line review, amendment, and vote to advance the draft legislation.
A positive development for its smooth progression is that Senator Roger Marshall (R-KS) has indicated he will not introduce his controversial credit card fee amendment on that day. This improves the odds of the bill exiting committee without significant political detours.
Conversely, the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act has encountered obstacles. This legislation would explicitly classify XRP as a “non-security,” a crucial designation for long-term regulatory certainty.
The process stalled on January 15 when Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong withdrew his support, citing several problematic provisions, including:
* Effective prohibitions on tokenized equities.
* New DeFi regulations granting expanded government data access.
* A shift of certain oversight authority from the CFTC to the SEC.
* Bans on paying interest on stablecoin holdings.
Further complexity arises from over 130 submitted amendments covering topics from stablecoin yield rules to ethics guidelines for government officials’ crypto investments. This underscores the ongoing contentious debate surrounding digital asset framework legislation.
XRP gained significant momentum in 2025 with the conclusion of its protracted dispute with the SEC. In August 2025, Ripple and the regulator agreed to drop their respective appeals, with Ripple paying a $125 million settlement—far less than the initially sought $2 billion.
This removed a structural uncertainty that had weighed on the asset for years. Present uncertainty now stems less from the courts and more from the shaping of new rules.
In December 2025, Ripple received preliminary approval from the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency for a national bank charter. The planned Ripple National Trust Bank is intended to hold and manage reserves for its U.S. dollar-pegged stablecoin, RLUSD.
A key outstanding application is Ripple’s request for a master account with the U.S. Federal Reserve. Granting this would provide the bank with direct access to critical payment infrastructures like FedWire and FedNow, significantly deepening its integration into traditional finance.
January brought several partnership announcements:
* DXC Technology: Since January 21, 2026, Ripple has collaborated with DXC to integrate digital custody and payment functionalities into the Hogan core banking platform. This system supports approximately $5 trillion in global deposits and 300 million accounts, representing substantial potential for leveraging Ripple’s technology.
* Riyad Bank: Ripple is working with Saudi Arabia’s Riyad Bank to pilot and enhance cross-border payments and asset tokenization, a clear move toward streamlining international payment flows.
The fully USD-backed stablecoin RLUSD has surpassed $1 billion in market capitalization within a year, ranking it among the largest U.S.-regulated stablecoins. RLUSD is being utilized both within Ripple’s own payment network and as collateral in prime brokerage operations, strengthening Ripple’s role in institutional finance—a positive indirect factor for XRP.
Blockchain fundamental data presents a stable picture despite price weakness. Analytics from CryptoQuant show increased activity from large wallet addresses (“whales”) as prices dipped below $2, particularly around the $1.88 level, hinting at notable accumulation.
Network capacity remains robust, with CoinGecko ranking its transaction processing reliability highly within the industry.
A notable long-term supply consideration emerged from a developer proposal discussed in January. It outlined a mechanism where, under sustained network congestion, transaction fees could theoretically burn up to 1 billion XRP annually, creating a deflationary tendency during periods of high usage.
On the institutional front, XRP spot ETFs continue to attract capital. Since their launch in late 2025, cumulative inflows have exceeded $1.36 billion. Even on a weak trading day, January 26, the Bitwise XRP ETF recorded inflows of $3.43 million, signaling sustained professional investor interest amid price pullbacks.
At the World Economic Forum in Davos on January 21, 2026, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse struck an optimistic tone on the broader crypto market’s development. He stated he was “very bullish” and anticipated new all-time highs, citing growing institutional participation and increasing regulatory clarity, though he offered no specific price targets.
Analysts at Standard Chartered also presented a constructive view, projecting XRP could reach $8 in 2026 and $12.50 by 2028. These forecasts are ambitious and heavily dependent on political and regulatory outcomes.
Based on the current confluence of factors, three primary scenarios are under discussion:
* Bull Case ($4–$5): This requires the passage of the CLARITY Act by mid-2026 coupled with Ripple’s Trust Bank securing a Fed master account. The result would be clear regulatory classification plus direct access to U.S. payment rails.
* Base Case ($2.50–$3.00): This scenario assumes moderate regulatory progress combined with continuous ETF inflows. XRP would recover from its lows without entering a pronounced speculative phase.
* Bear Case ($1.50–$1.80): Delays in legislation and stalled institutional adoption would pressure the price sideways to downward. This range contains key long-term support zones that would likely be tested.
Technically, the area around $2.00 remains a central resistance level. A sustained breakout above it would be a first confirming step for an upward trend change.
XRP currently balances on a cleansed legal foundation against pending regulatory decisions. In the immediate term, focus shifts to the Senate committee markup session on Thursday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference on January 28, and continued XRP ETF flow data. While trading below the $2.00 mark maintains a cautious signal, structural developments—including banking infrastructure build-out, RLUSD growth, and persistent institutional interest—lay the groundwork for higher trading ranges, provided the political landscape cooperates.
While XRP’s market valuation faces headwinds, the underlying blockchain infrastructure is securing significant institutional partnerships and expanding its real-world utility. This creates a notable disconnect between the asset’s technical price action and its strengthening fundamental case.
Currently trading near $1.90, XRP remains well below its 52-week high of $3.04, despite a modest recovery from its yearly low of $1.81. The technical picture presents a mixed outlook for the short term.
Key chart levels and signals are in focus:
* A bearish short-term signal has emerged with the 26-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) crossing below the 50-day EMA—a pattern some analysts refer to as a “micro-death-cross.” However, market experts note its significance may be limited without a corresponding surge in selling volume.
* Immediate support is viewed in the $1.80 to $1.88 range. A decisive break above $2.10 is widely seen as a potential signal for exiting the current downward trend channel.
* A more concerning scenario would involve a breach of the 200-day moving average, potentially opening the door for a retreat toward $1.40, though current order book depth appears to be defending the $1.80 zone.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 28.8 confirms XRP has entered oversold territory, suggesting the market is digesting technical warnings while fundamental developments have yet to be reflected in price.
Data from the blockchain itself suggests a potential undervaluation. According to Santiment, XRP is currently in a possible “Opportunity Zone” based on its 30-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio of approximately -5.7%. This negative figure indicates the average short-term holder is at a loss, a condition that has historically preceded recoveries once selling pressure subsides.
Compared to other major assets, XRP appears more undervalued than Bitcoin (MVRV ~-3.7%), though less so than Chainlink or Cardano. Notably, large wallet addresses, or “whales,” have remained active, using the dip toward $1.88 to accumulate more tokens. This sustained activity by major holders indicates continued long-term confidence in the network’s utility despite the price correction.
The most substantial fundamental development originates from the Middle East. On January 26, Ripple entered into a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Jeel, the innovation unit of Riyad Bank in Saudi Arabia. This partnership is multi-faceted:
* Scale: Riyad Bank manages over $130 billion in assets, making it a prominent test case for blockchain technology in the region.
* Scope: The collaboration plans pilot projects for cross-border payments, digital asset custody, and tokenization.
* Strategic Alignment: The initiative is embedded within Saudi Arabia’s “Vision 2030” FinTech agenda and will utilize the “Jeel Sandbox,” built in collaboration with FinTech Saudi and Google Cloud.
Concurrently, the XRP Ledger (XRPL) is demonstrating measurable growth. The total value of tokenized assets on the blockchain has surpassed the $1 billion mark. Furthermore, Ripple’s native stablecoin, RLUSD, has achieved a circulating supply of approximately $1.42 billion, enhancing overall network liquidity.
On the regulatory front, progress is mixed. The “CLARITY Act,” a U.S. Senate bill aimed at clearly classifying assets like XRP as non-securities, was temporarily shelved on January 15 following industry critique. However, structural advancements provide a counterbalance. Ripple’s conditional OCC license for a National Trust Bank (secured in December 2025) and its ongoing application for a Federal Reserve master account are building an institutional framework that supports longer-term confidence.
Institutional investment products reflect this dichotomy. For the week ending January 23, XRP-focused investment vehicles saw net outflows of around $40 million, with the Volatility Shares XRP ETF (XRPI) mirroring spot market consolidation as of January 26. Yet, the broader yearly perspective is more positive: cumulative inflows into XRP ETFs have exceeded $1.36 billion since the start of the year, signaling sustained institutional interest through structured products.
The current XRP landscape is defined by two opposing forces: short-term technical weakness with oversold signals and periodic outflows versus a clearly growing use-case foundation with major bank partnerships, rising tokenization, and solid annual ETF inflows.
Three critical price levels will be decisive in the coming weeks:
1. A successful defense of support around $1.80 would keep the scenario for a technical rebound—consistent with historical negative MVRV patterns—intact.
2. A sustained breakout above the psychologically important $2.00 zone, followed by $2.10, would significantly weaken the current downward trend narrative.
3. Conversely, a breakdown below the $1.80 support and the 200-day moving average could pave the way for a deeper correction toward $1.40, despite the network’s ongoing fundamental expansion.
The XRP token finds itself caught between opposing market forces as the new trading week begins. On-chain metrics suggest the asset may be undervalued, yet this contrasts sharply with significant capital outflows from institutional investment products. This tug-of-war unfolds against a backdrop of broader cryptocurrency market nervousness, characterized by elevated volatility and forced liquidations.
Currently trading near $1.92, XRP has managed to hold a modest year-to-date gain of approximately 2.31%. However, this performance has not insulated it from the wider market correction, which has pushed total crypto market capitalization below the $3 trillion threshold.
A key point of tension lies in the derivatives market. Open interest in XRP futures remains substantial at around $3.3 billion, indicating sustained trader engagement. Yet, this high level of positioning amplifies the risk of sharp price swings should leveraged positions be unwound. Over the past 24 hours, XRP liquidations totaled roughly $11.46 million, contributing to a market-wide liquidation figure nearing $670 million.
Blockchain data presents a notably more optimistic picture than recent price action might suggest.
Negative MVRV Suggests Buying Zone
XRP’s 30-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio has dipped to approximately -5.7%. A negative reading indicates that many recent buyers are currently holding their tokens at a loss. Historically, such conditions have often preceded periods of reduced selling pressure and potential price recovery. Analytics platform Santiment statistically categorizes this zone as a “Buying Opportunity” based on prior market cycles.
Surge in Large Transactions
Network activity shows a pronounced spike in large transfers, with 2,802 transactions each exceeding $100,000 recorded in a single day. Market observers frequently associate this kind of activity with so-called “whale” entities. When coupled with weaker prices, these patterns are often interpreted as potential accumulation by major holders rather than capitulation, aligning with the MVRV argument for undervaluation.
In stark contrast to the on-chain narrative, institutional behavior reveals pronounced caution. The Grayscale XRP Trust (GXRP), a regulated vehicle for professional investors, has experienced heavy withdrawals.
On January 21 alone, investors pulled $55.4 million from the trust. This single-day outflow represented about 25.7% of its assets under management, which subsequently fell to $215.9 million. Such a pronounced withdrawal is a clear signal that a segment of institutional capital is actively reducing its XRP exposure.
This trend fits within a broader three-month corrective phase that has seen XRP’s price decline by roughly 28.4%. The discrepancy is evident: while on-chain data hints at accumulation, traditional investment products are demonstrably pulling back.
XRP’s trajectory is also influenced by significant capital flows across the wider digital asset ecosystem.
The landscape is thus defined by ample available liquidity poised against a clear preference for classic hedges among a portion of the investment community.
From a chart perspective, XRP is trading in a critical area. At $1.92, the price sits just above its 52-week low of $1.81 and approximately 36% below its 52-week high of $3.04. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 28.8 indicates oversold conditions, while the token trades below its 50-day moving average of $1.99.
The consolidated picture reveals:
* Arguments for a potential rebound, supported by on-chain metrics (negative MVRV, whale transactions) and an oversold RSI.
* Countervailing pressure from substantial Grayscale XRP Trust outflows and a nearly 30% three-month price correction, signaling persistent institutional hesitation.
In the near term, the key focus will be whether XRP can maintain stability in the zone just above its annual low. Holding this level would lend credence to the accumulation signals from on-chain data. A decisive break below it, however, could trigger further liquidations of leveraged positions and extend the current corrective phase.
Silver’s Perfect Storm: A Surge Fueled by Scarcity and Speculation
The precious metals market is experiencing extraordinary conditions, with silver at the epicenter of a powerful rally. A convergence of physical scarcity, intense investor speculation, and geopolitical friction is creating a potent upward price dynamic. This surge is notably outperforming even gold as capital seeks tangible assets amid global uncertainty.
Price Action and Market Metrics
The current landscape is defined by several key data points:
* Current Price: Silver is trading at $103.67, placing it within striking distance of its 52-week high of $105.00.
* Year-to-Date Performance: The metal has recorded a substantial gain of 43.47% since the start of the year.
* Market Volatility: Price movements remain highly erratic, characterized by an annualized volatility nearing 66%.
The Physical Squeeze and Asian Demand Shift
A primary driver of the price advance is a severe mismatch between unprecedented physical demand and a constrained market. Refiners, including MKS PAMP, report buying activity reaching historic levels. A significant shift in Asian markets is intensifying the pressure: Chinese manufacturers have partially redirected production from jewelry to investment products like 1-kilogram bars to meet soaring local demand.
This race for physical possession fundamentally sets the current silver market apart from other commodities. Industrial consumers, particularly from the photovoltaic and electronics sectors, now find themselves competing directly with private investors and short-term speculators for available supply. This competition is exacerbating bullish price momentum and underpinning the steep ascent witnessed in recent weeks.
Geopolitics and Monetary Policy Add Fuel
Broader macroeconomic and political factors are further encouraging the flight into hard assets. Proposed tariffs from former U.S. President Donald Trump targeting Canada and South Korea, alongside ongoing trade tensions with China, are sowing deep market unease. Concurrently, a weakening U.S. dollar—partly due to interventions supporting the Japanese yen—is making dollar-denominated commodities more attractive to international buyers.
Monetary policy is also contributing to investor nervousness. As the U.S. Federal Reserve conducts its rate-setting meeting, reports of political pressure on Chair Jerome Powell and the threat of a potential government shutdown are weighing on sentiment. In this environment, precious metals are acting not merely as an inflation hedge but, more critically, as insurance against political and policy instability.
Outlook: Constructive but Volatile
The fundamental backdrop for silver remains strongly supportive. Structural supply tightness continues to provide a price floor, while the complex geopolitical landscape shows little sign of near-term resolution. Chart-wise, with the price sitting just 1.26% below its all-time high, the path for further gains appears open, provided Asian physical demand persists. However, investors must brace for significant price swings given the market’s exceptionally high volatility.