As 2025 draws to a close, the Solana blockchain presents a study in contrasts. While its native token, SOL, trades near annual lows, a deeper examination of on-chain metrics, institutional products, and development roadmaps reveals underlying strength. The central question for 2026 is whether this foundational activity can ultimately reverse the bearish price trend that has persisted since last autumn.

Institutional Validation Amid Market Weakness

Recent weeks have seen significant institutional developments for Solana, suggesting professional investors are looking beyond short-term price action.

• New CME Derivatives: On December 15, the CME Group launched spot-quoted futures for SOL. Unlike traditional futures, these contracts are priced directly against the spot market, eliminating the pricing discrepancies often caused by funding costs. The CME cited strong demand for similar products on Bitcoin and Ether, which have seen over 1.3 million contracts traded since June.
• Accessible Contract Size: These new SOL futures are the smallest crypto contracts yet offered by the CME, designed for traders who prefer spot market pricing but want the functionality of futures without managing frequent rollovers.
• Enhanced Hedging Tools: The activation of the Trading at Settlement (TAS) feature for SOL futures provides market participants with a precise tool for managing price risk, particularly around crypto ETF flows.

These products arrive alongside sustained investment through exchange-traded funds. Solana ETFs have recorded net inflows for seven consecutive days, totaling $674 million. This pattern indicates that professional and semi-professional capital has not abandoned the asset despite its depreciating price.

Price Action Versus Network Performance

SOL is currently priced around $126.94, approximately 46% below its September peak. It has shed nearly 9% over the past 30 days, with its Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 40.2 signaling a neutral-to-weak momentum. A distance of over 15% from the 50-day moving average confirms a clear downtrend, though not an acute sell-off.

This price weakness stands in stark contrast to Solana’s operational metrics for 2025. According to Artemis CEO Jon Ma, the network leads in real-world usage:

• Approximately 98 million monthly active users (roughly five times the number on Base).
• Around 34 billion annual transactions.
• A trading volume of $1.6 trillion, surpassing Ethereum.
• Application fees of $5 billion.
• Network revenue of $1.5 billion.

Social engagement remains high. Data from Phoenix Group shows about 58,800 dedicated posts and 14.7 million interactions within a 24-hour period in December, reflecting a highly active community. However, CoinGecko data indicates Solana’s share of global “narrative mindshare” fell to 26.79% in 2025 from 38.79% in 2024, pointing to rising competition from ecosystems like Base and Sui.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Solana?

The 2026 Catalyst: The Alpenglow Upgrade

A pivotal event on the horizon is the planned Alpenglow upgrade, described by developers as the protocol’s most significant advancement to date. The improvements focus on core performance and stability:

• Faster Finality: Transaction confirmation times are projected to drop from roughly 12.8 seconds to between 100 and 150 milliseconds.
• Improved Security: A redesigned consensus mechanism aims to fortify the network against attacks.
• Greater Reliability: The upgrade intends to significantly reduce the probability of network outages.

Technically, Alpenglow represents a shift from the previous Proof-of-History model to a more streamlined validation process. This could enhance Solana’s competitive position against Ethereum, especially in areas like stablecoins and real-world asset tokenization where low latency and high reliability are critical.

DeFi Growth Shows a Shift in Focus

The decentralized finance landscape on Solana tells a story of growth tempered by a post-bull market correction. The total value locked (TVL) in Solana’s lending markets reached $3.6 billion in December 2025, a 33% increase from $2.7 billion a year prior. Major protocols like Kamino ($3.5 billion TVL), Jupiter, and the newly launched v3 version of Drift are driving this expansion.

Yet, the aftermath of the previous rally is evident. The overall TVL remains more than $10 billion below its September peak of $15 billion. Furthermore, memecoin trading volume on the network has plummeted by 67% from its January high. This suggests a gradual, and potentially healthier, shift away from purely speculative activity toward more structural utility.

Conclusion: A Foundation Awaiting a Breakout

Solana enters 2026 at a crossroads. Its token price hovers near the 52-week low of $126.75, a stark contrast to its earlier highs. Simultaneously, robust network usage, consistent ETF inflows, and new institutional products underscore sustained, long-term interest. The coming months will test whether the technical promise of the Alpenglow upgrade and the evolving DeFi ecosystem can provide the necessary impetus to close the gap to September’s highs and steer Solana toward broader, real-world adoption.

Ad

Solana Stock: Buy or Sell?! New Solana Analysis from December 15 delivers the answer:

The latest Solana figures speak for themselves: Urgent action needed for Solana investors. Is it worth buying or should you sell? Find out what to do now in the current free analysis from December 15.

Solana: Buy or sell? Read more here...