As 2025 draws to a close, the XRP market presents a curious contradiction. On one hand, the digital asset remains trapped below the psychologically significant $2.00 level, flashing concerning technical signals. On the other, institutional investment vehicles are attracting record-breaking inflows. This stark divergence between a sluggish spot price and surging professional interest creates a fundamental market question: which side will ultimately be proven correct?
Bullish Long-Term Forecasts Defy Near-Term Gloom
Financial institutions are projecting significant optimism for 2026, despite the token’s current weak performance. Analysts at Standard Chartered have issued a forecast suggesting a potential rise to $8.00 by 2026. They cite increasing regulatory clarity following the SEC settlement and anticipated further ETF inflows of between $4 and $8 billion as primary catalysts. The network’s fundamental developments, including the RLUSD stablecoin and new smart contract functionalities, are also expected to support its long-term valuation.
This institutional confidence is already manifesting in capital flows. In the final week of the year, XRP investment products saw net inflows of $64 to $70 million. This marked a sharp contrast to the outflows recorded for Bitcoin and Ethereum products during the same period and represented the seventh consecutive week of positive inflows for XRP.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying XRP?
Technical Charts Paint a Cautious Picture
The current price action tells a different story. XRP is trading at $1.87, mired in a tough consolidation phase approximately 50% below its July yearly high. Market technicians analyzing the daily chart have identified a potential “head and shoulders” pattern, a formation traditionally viewed as bearish. A sustained break below the critical support zone between $1.77 and $1.80 could trigger a deeper correction toward the $1.00 mark. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 28.8 indicates the asset is in oversold territory, which may facilitate a short-term technical rebound.
Explaining the Disconnect: The OTC Effect
The question remains: why hasn’t this substantial institutional demand translated into a higher spot price? Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, explains the mechanism. A significant portion of these ETF purchases are settled “Over-The-Counter” (OTC) through major liquidity providers like Goldman Sachs or Jane Street. This method bypasses the public order books on spot exchanges, meaning the immediate price impact is muted and the transactions occur without directly moving the market price visible to most retail investors.
The market is now approaching a decisive inflection point. The growing chasm between retail investor apprehension and steady institutional accumulation suggests a potential shift in market dynamics. For the bullish thesis to gain validation, a key technical prerequisite must be met: the $1.80 support level must be defended in the coming trading sessions.
Ad
XRP Stock: Buy or Sell?! New XRP Analysis from January 10 delivers the answer:
The latest XRP figures speak for themselves: Urgent action needed for XRP investors. Is it worth buying or should you sell? Find out what to do now in the current free analysis from January 10.
XRP: Buy or sell? Read more here...