The XRP market is sending conflicting signals. While the XRP Ledger rolls out a major software overhaul and a landmark regulatory bill inches toward a Senate vote, the token’s price has fallen to a 52-week low of $1.11, a 7.55% drop in a single session. Since the start of the year, XRP has lost 37.80% of its value, and the selling pressure shows no sign of abating.

The relative strength index has plunged to 19.7, deep in oversold territory—down from 23.2 earlier in the week—and short sellers have tightened their grip. Bearish positions now outnumber long bets by a ratio of nine to one, according to exchange data. The token briefly hit $1.07 on June 5, its weakest level since November 2024, and currently trades just 8.89% above that floor.

Regulatory milestone on the horizon

Against this bleak price action, the regulatory outlook for XRP has brightened considerably. The CLARITY Act, which would classify decentralized cryptocurrencies as commodities under CFTC oversight, reached the Senate calendar on June 1. The bill explicitly names XRP as a digital commodity, potentially ending years of legal uncertainty. The White House has targeted July 4 for a signature, though missing that deadline could push enactment into the autumn. Sixty votes are still needed in the Senate.

British banking giant Standard Chartered sees enormous potential if the bill passes. Its analysts project additional institutional inflows of $4 billion to $8 billion into XRP-related investment products.

Technical upgrade renames core software

Meanwhile, the XRP Ledger is modernizing its infrastructure. On June 4, XRP Ledger Operations confirmed that version 3.2.0 will rename the server software from “rippled” to “xrpld” — a move that goes beyond cosmetic rebranding. Validators and node operators will need to prepare for the mandatory update, supported by a new technical handbook. The upgrade follows version 3.1.3, activated in May, which fixed critical issues around NFTs, vault systems, and the lending protocol.

Ripple CTO David Schwartz has outlined a broader vision: the ledger should evolve from a payments backbone into a platform for institutional tokenization. That vision is already taking shape. Tokenized assets worth $3.5 billion now reside on the XRP Ledger, including repos, money market funds, public equities, and loans.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying XRP?

Institutional cash flows in, but ETF trends diverge

A striking disconnect has emerged between retail sentiment and institutional activity. While the spot price crumbles, US-listed XRP ETFs posted net inflows of $131 million in May, bringing cumulative inflows since launch to $1.6 billion. Yet not all days are green: on June 3, ETFs recorded net outflows of $5.34 million, a reminder that even institutional demand can waver.

The contrast with Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs is stark — those products have suffered weeks of redemptions, while XRP funds continue to attract fresh capital. Standard Chartered’s billion-dollar forecast underscores the belief that a clear regulatory framework could supercharge this trend.

Wall Street taps the ledger for real-time settlement

Real-world applications are gaining traction. Ondo Finance recently completed the redemption of a tokenized US Treasury fund on the XRP Ledger in near real-time, with cross-border settlement handled by Mastercard’s network and J.P. Morgan participating. Ripple facilitated the token exchange on-ledger. Such use cases, if backed by regulatory clarity, could become standard.

The ecosystem’s own stablecoin, RLUSD, processed $22 billion in transaction volume during the quarter, serving as a crucial on-ramp and off-ramp for the network. Separately, Flare completed an automated liquidity rollover of $4 million for stXRP duration pools on June 4, reallocating capital to new markets maturing at year-end.

Chart warns of further downside

Technically, XRP is under pressure from all angles. The token sits 15.58% below its 50-day moving average and 28.24% below the 200-day moving average — a textbook downtrend. The oversold RSI suggests a bounce is possible, but with shorts overwhelmingly in control, any rally could be short-lived.

The immediate support zone between $1.00 and $1.05 is critical. A decisive break below that level would worsen the technical picture. If XRP can stabilize, attention may shift back to the xrpld upgrade and the Senate’s looming vote. For now, the bears have the upper hand, and only a positive surprise from Washington could trigger the kind of short squeeze that would reverse the token’s fortunes.

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