While XRP’s market valuation faces headwinds, the underlying blockchain infrastructure is securing significant institutional partnerships and expanding its real-world utility. This creates a notable disconnect between the asset’s technical price action and its strengthening fundamental case.
Technical Indicators Signal Caution Amid Oversold Conditions
Currently trading near $1.90, XRP remains well below its 52-week high of $3.04, despite a modest recovery from its yearly low of $1.81. The technical picture presents a mixed outlook for the short term.
Key chart levels and signals are in focus:
* A bearish short-term signal has emerged with the 26-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) crossing below the 50-day EMA—a pattern some analysts refer to as a “micro-death-cross.” However, market experts note its significance may be limited without a corresponding surge in selling volume.
* Immediate support is viewed in the $1.80 to $1.88 range. A decisive break above $2.10 is widely seen as a potential signal for exiting the current downward trend channel.
* A more concerning scenario would involve a breach of the 200-day moving average, potentially opening the door for a retreat toward $1.40, though current order book depth appears to be defending the $1.80 zone.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 28.8 confirms XRP has entered oversold territory, suggesting the market is digesting technical warnings while fundamental developments have yet to be reflected in price.
On-Chain Metrics and Institutional Activity Paint a Different Picture
Data from the blockchain itself suggests a potential undervaluation. According to Santiment, XRP is currently in a possible “Opportunity Zone” based on its 30-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio of approximately -5.7%. This negative figure indicates the average short-term holder is at a loss, a condition that has historically preceded recoveries once selling pressure subsides.
Compared to other major assets, XRP appears more undervalued than Bitcoin (MVRV ~-3.7%), though less so than Chainlink or Cardano. Notably, large wallet addresses, or “whales,” have remained active, using the dip toward $1.88 to accumulate more tokens. This sustained activity by major holders indicates continued long-term confidence in the network’s utility despite the price correction.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying XRP?
Major Saudi Partnership and Expanding Tokenization
The most substantial fundamental development originates from the Middle East. On January 26, Ripple entered into a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Jeel, the innovation unit of Riyad Bank in Saudi Arabia. This partnership is multi-faceted:
* Scale: Riyad Bank manages over $130 billion in assets, making it a prominent test case for blockchain technology in the region.
* Scope: The collaboration plans pilot projects for cross-border payments, digital asset custody, and tokenization.
* Strategic Alignment: The initiative is embedded within Saudi Arabia’s “Vision 2030” FinTech agenda and will utilize the “Jeel Sandbox,” built in collaboration with FinTech Saudi and Google Cloud.
Concurrently, the XRP Ledger (XRPL) is demonstrating measurable growth. The total value of tokenized assets on the blockchain has surpassed the $1 billion mark. Furthermore, Ripple’s native stablecoin, RLUSD, has achieved a circulating supply of approximately $1.42 billion, enhancing overall network liquidity.
Regulatory Landscape and Institutional Investment Flows
On the regulatory front, progress is mixed. The “CLARITY Act,” a U.S. Senate bill aimed at clearly classifying assets like XRP as non-securities, was temporarily shelved on January 15 following industry critique. However, structural advancements provide a counterbalance. Ripple’s conditional OCC license for a National Trust Bank (secured in December 2025) and its ongoing application for a Federal Reserve master account are building an institutional framework that supports longer-term confidence.
Institutional investment products reflect this dichotomy. For the week ending January 23, XRP-focused investment vehicles saw net outflows of around $40 million, with the Volatility Shares XRP ETF (XRPI) mirroring spot market consolidation as of January 26. Yet, the broader yearly perspective is more positive: cumulative inflows into XRP ETFs have exceeded $1.36 billion since the start of the year, signaling sustained institutional interest through structured products.
Outlook: Conflicting Forces and Key Levels to Watch
The current XRP landscape is defined by two opposing forces: short-term technical weakness with oversold signals and periodic outflows versus a clearly growing use-case foundation with major bank partnerships, rising tokenization, and solid annual ETF inflows.
Three critical price levels will be decisive in the coming weeks:
1. A successful defense of support around $1.80 would keep the scenario for a technical rebound—consistent with historical negative MVRV patterns—intact.
2. A sustained breakout above the psychologically important $2.00 zone, followed by $2.10, would significantly weaken the current downward trend narrative.
3. Conversely, a breakdown below the $1.80 support and the 200-day moving average could pave the way for a deeper correction toward $1.40, despite the network’s ongoing fundamental expansion.
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