Friday’s trading session witnessed a historic milestone in the precious metals complex. A powerful confluence of monetary policy and fundamental supply constraints has propelled silver prices into uncharted territory, decisively breaching previous all-time highs.

A Structural Supply Shock from China

The fundamental landscape is being reshaped by a looming supply crisis. Industry analysts point to China’s impending regulatory shift, set for January 2026, which will effectively halt silver exports through stringent licensing requirements. This move comes as Shanghai warehouse inventories hover at decade-low levels, indicating the country’s efforts to manage its own domestic shortage. Given China’s position as the world’s largest consumer of silver for industrial applications and a backdrop of stagnant global mine production, this policy threatens to drastically exacerbate an already significant market deficit.

Monetary Policy Adds Fuel to the Fire

Concurrently, aggressive monetary easing from the United States Federal Reserve is providing substantial tailwinds. The central bank has enacted a third consecutive interest rate cut, bringing its benchmark rate to a range of 3.50% to 3.75%. Furthermore, its announcement to purchase $40 billion in Treasury Bills monthly is being interpreted by market participants as the beginning of a renewed phase of dollar depreciation—a classic catalyst for hard asset appreciation.

Key Drivers of the Surge:

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• Price Action: On December 12, 2025, silver achieved a new 52-week high, trading at $64.34 per ounce.
• Momentum: The metal has posted a remarkable gain of 20.87% over the preceding 30-day period.
• Industrial Demand: The solar energy and AI hardware sectors now account for approximately 60% of total global consumption.
• Investment Flows: Physically-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded substantial net inflows throughout November.

Analyst Targets Are Revised Sharply Higher

In response to this new paradigm, major financial institutions are rapidly adjusting their long-term forecasts. While Bank of America’s $65 per ounce target is nearly within reach, strategists at BNP Paribas are looking significantly higher. They project a realistic path for silver to reach $100 per ounce by the end of 2026. This bullish thesis is heavily supported by inelastic demand from the photovoltaic sector, where solar panel manufacturers require the metal irrespective of its price fluctuations.

Despite the prevailing euphoria, some cautionary notes are emerging for the near term. Analysts at UBS highlight the elevated premiums on Chinese futures contracts, a condition that has historically signaled speculative overheating. With the spot price currently at $64.34, silver is trading at its absolute peak, which increases the likelihood of interim profit-taking and heightened volatility.

Nevertheless, the overarching narrative remains clear: a tangible physical shortage is colliding with expansive global monetary policy. As long as the structural supply deficit persists, any price pullbacks are likely to be viewed by institutional investors as opportunities to establish or increase positions.

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