A landmark legal decision from Washington has reshaped the global trade landscape, providing a significant tailwind for gold prices. The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that tariffs imposed under the IEEPA were unlawful, a judgment swiftly countered by a new executive order. This legal volatility is now a key driver for the precious metal.

The market’s reaction was decisively positive. Gold closed Friday’s session at $5,130.00, marking a daily gain of 2.28%. This performance reinforces a strong bullish trend, with the asset up +18.15% year-to-date.

A Swift Legal and Policy Counterpunch

In a 6-3 decision on Friday, the Supreme Court determined the IEEPA does not grant the president authority to levy tariffs. This ruling invalidates both the country-specific “Fentanyl tariffs” introduced in 2025 (targeting Canada, Mexico, and China) and the subsequent global reciprocity tariffs.

The financial implications are substantial. According to sources, approximately $142 billion in tariff revenue was collected under IEEPA authority in 2025, raising the immediate question of potential refunds. Such fiscal uncertainties traditionally fuel demand for safe-haven assets like gold.

The response from the White House was immediate. A new global 10% tariff was announced, to be implemented under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. This legal basis permits tariffs of up to 15%, but only for a maximum of 150 days before Congressional approval is required. The new tariffs are scheduled to take effect on February 24.

The Dual Engine for Gold’s Ascent

The initial price catalyst was currency-based: the U.S. dollar weakened following the court’s decision, providing a typical boost for dollar-denominated commodities. However, the more profound driver is the second-order effect: a sharp increase in macroeconomic and policy uncertainty.

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Analysis points to three primary catalysts emerging from the situation:

• Fiscal Pressure: The potential loss of a significant revenue stream increases strain on the U.S. deficit, particularly if those funds were earmarked to offset other government spending plans.
• Trade Policy Flux: With the flexible IEEPA instrument removed, the administration must seek alternative mechanisms, a process likely to create friction and prolong trade policy ambiguity.
• Economic Backdrop: Disappointing U.S. GDP growth of 1.4% for the fourth quarter has further encouraged defensive asset allocation.

Ultimately, gold tends to attract investment when the scale of potential fiscal shortfalls and the near-term path of trade policy become difficult for investors to quantify.

Concurrent Support from Geopolitics, Central Banks, and Demand

Geopolitical tensions continue to simmer. Peace talks between Ukraine and Russia have yielded no breakthrough. Furthermore, sources citing UBS report an unusually large U.S. military presence near Iran, noting that military action appears “increasingly likely.”

Monetary policy adds another layer of support. The latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes revealed a divided debate between potential further rate hikes and the timing of future cuts. Key figures include a Fed Funds Rate of 3.75% and a core PCE inflation rate of 3%.

Fundamental demand remains robust. Global gold demand surpassed 5,000 tonnes for the first time in 2025, with central bank purchases accounting for 863 tonnes. Additionally, Chinese gold ETFs saw strong inflows in January 2026.

As the new week begins, market attention is likely to pivot toward February 24. The enactment of the new 10% tariffs on that date will be critical in determining whether gold consolidates near the $5,000 level or gathers momentum for another move higher.

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