Stay ahead with the latest cryptocurrency news and analysis
Blockchain
Bitcoin
Analysis
Analysis
Analysis
Blockchain
The cryptocurrency’s attempt to breach the psychologically significant $90,000 level was abruptly halted on Monday. A brief surge above $90,200 during Asian trading hours quickly reversed, with profit-taking pushing the price back down to approximately $87,200. This failure underscores a market dominated by year-end caution, where tax-related selling and a persistent correlation with struggling tech stocks are outweighing continued institutional accumulation.
Not all market participants are retreating. Major investors, often referred to as “whales,” remain active on the buy side. Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, capitalized on the recent price dip to significantly expand its holdings. Last week, the company purchased an additional 1,229 Bitcoin for about $108.8 million. On-chain data further supports the view that large-scale investors are strategically using price levels around $80,000 for accumulation.
A primary factor capping Bitcoin’s upward momentum is its strengthened linkage to traditional equity markets, particularly the Nasdaq 100. Analysts at Wintermute note that this correlation intensifies during stock market downturns, a dynamic that pulled the crypto sector lower today. The brief rally did trigger a cascade of liquidations, however, wiping out over $102 million in leveraged short positions. This “short squeeze” initially accelerated the price rise before buying pressure evaporated.
The prevailing defensive posture among many traders is evident in the declining Open Interest for Bitcoin futures, signaling a reduction in leveraged bets. Market weakness is especially pronounced during U.S. trading hours, which analysts at Laser Digital attribute largely to tax-loss harvesting. Investors are moving to realize losses before the year-end for tax purposes, creating a consistent headwind.
In the near term, technical indicators point to a continuation of volatile, range-bound trading. Experts, including John Glover of Ledn, suggest that a further pullback toward the $71,000 to $84,000 range may present more attractive entry points. For the remainder of the year, the critical level for investors to watch is the defense of the key support zone around $80,000.
As the year draws to a close, XRP finds itself at a critical juncture, pulled by opposing market forces. Sustained institutional capital inflows and the absorption of supply by spot ETFs contrast with a price that remains stubbornly range-bound, hovering just above a key technical support level. The central question for investors is whether these robust fundamentals will ultimately catalyze a significant price appreciation.
Beyond the price chart, the XRP ecosystem has seen substantial development in 2025. The resolution of the protracted legal battle with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in August has allowed Ripple to accelerate its build-out of institutional-grade infrastructure.
A key development is the integration of the RLUSD stablecoin. Functioning as a regulation-compliant bridge between traditional fiat currencies and decentralized finance (DeFi) applications on the XRP Ledger (XRPL), it enhances the network’s practical utility. This bolsters the thesis of investors who view XRP not merely as a speculative instrument but as a foundational infrastructure asset.
Network performance remains solid, with transactions settling within 3 to 5 seconds—a competitive edge in payments. Daily active address counts are healthy, despite a minor dip over the weekend, a pattern typically attributed to seasonal and holiday-related effects.
The regulatory overhang that long plagued XRP has largely cleared. Removing the uncertainty of the SEC lawsuit has fundamentally altered the asset’s perception, shifting market focus toward the broader political framework.
Attention is now centered on the U.S. Market Structure Bill. Historical precedent shows that legislative progress on this draft has repeatedly coincided with double-digit percentage price rallies. Further positive developments in the legislative process could therefore act as a catalyst for significant volatility.
Concurrently, the successful launch and operation of spot XRP ETFs send a strong signal to more conservative market participants. The consistent inflows and stable functioning of these products are interpreted by many as a form of regulatory endorsement, lowering the barrier to entry for institutional investors and supporting the long-term investment case.
An examination of on-chain metrics reveals a compelling narrative. According to Glassnode data, XRP reserves held on centralized exchanges have plummeted to approximately 1.5 billion tokens—the lowest level in over a year. This marks a dramatic decline from the roughly 4 billion tokens held at the start of the year.
This drawdown is primarily attributed to the November launch of U.S.-based spot XRP ETFs. Since their introduction, these financial products are estimated to have accumulated around 750 million XRP. This creates a persistent demand channel that reduces freely available liquidity on the traditional spot market, exerting a price-stabilizing influence.
However, some analysts caution against oversimplifying this into a straightforward “supply shock” narrative. They point out that the XRP Ledger has traditionally exhibited high velocity and deep liquidity pools. Order books are considered relatively elastic, meaning they can absorb additional demand without necessarily triggering an immediate vertical price spike.
At the start of the week, XRP trades near $1.90, positioning it slightly below the 50-day moving average of $2.07. The token has declined nearly 13% over the past 30 days and sits approximately 38% below its 52-week high. Simultaneously, it is trading just above its recent annual low, indicating a narrow range with an undetermined next directional move.
Short-term pressure is evident in key indicators. With a 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 28.8, XRP is technically in oversold territory. The $1.80 level is widely viewed as crucial support, serving as a key reference point for traders. As long as this level holds, technicians see a path for another attempt at the psychologically important $2.00 zone.
Current market sentiment is best characterized as cautiously optimistic. In the near term, factors like declining open interest on major exchanges and the price struggling below its 50-day average suggest hesitation among active traders. Yet, the combination of falling exchange balances, steady ETF demand, and stable network activity paints a picture of an underlying solid foundation.
The coming weeks will likely be decisive. The market will watch to see if support around $1.80 holds and whether new regulatory catalysts emerge from the U.S. Should the support zone remain intact and positive signals arrive from either legislation or continued ETF inflows, the probability of a retest of the $2.00 mark increases. Conversely, a clear break below support could open the door to further declines. However, any such downside would occur against a backdrop of structurally tightening supply, which may favor upward reversals over the medium term.
As 2025 draws to a close, Solana presents a contradictory picture. The network’s technical and fundamental health has never been stronger, yet the price of its SOL token remains under significant pressure. Despite record-breaking usage, surging DeFi activity, and growing institutional adoption, SOL trades near its annual lows. This divergence between on-chain strength and market valuation is the central puzzle for observers.
A fundamental shift in Solana’s investor base is underway, driven significantly by new regulated investment vehicles. The launch of spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States in late October 2025 marked a pivotal moment. The Bitwise Solana Staking ETF (BSOL) debuted on the NYSE on October 28, becoming the first U.S. spot ETP for SOL.
Several products have since entered the market, including:
* Bitwise BSOL (NYSE)
* 21Shares TSOL (Cboe BZX)
* Fidelity’s FSOL ETF
* Franklin Templeton’s SOEZ ETF
Collectively, these Solana ETFs now manage nearly $750 million in assets. Corporate treasury departments have staked a minimum of 12.5 million SOL, representing over 3% of the circulating supply, signaling a decisive move toward institutional holders.
Major financial institutions are integrating Solana into concrete products and services:
* J.P. Morgan facilitated a US commercial paper issuance for Galaxy Digital on the Solana blockchain.
* BlackRock launched its BUIDL fund on the network.
* VanEck and Apollo have introduced tokenized products using Solana.
* Franklin Templeton operates a live spot SOL ETF.
Custody solutions also reflect institutional confidence. Coinbase was selected as the custodian for the Solana Company’s digital treasury, while VanEck partnered with SOL Strategies for the custody of its spot ETF assets.
The gap between SOL’s price and underlying network performance is striking. Over the past two years, Solana has processed over 200 billion transactions—reportedly more than all other blockchains combined during that period.
Key metrics for Q3 2025 underscore this robust activity:
* 17.2 million active addresses
* 543 million weekly transactions
* Decentralized exchange (DEX) trading volume exceeding $1.5 trillion year-to-date
* Peak DeFi Total Value Locked (TVL) of $11.5 billion, recently around $8.8 billion
A particularly notable metric is the Application Revenue Capture Ratio (App RCR) of 262.8%. This indicates that for every $100 spent on transaction fees, applications built on Solana generated approximately $262.80 in revenue, suggesting a thriving, value-creating ecosystem built on its low-cost infrastructure.
The Solana ecosystem conference, Breakpoint 2025, held from December 11-13 in Abu Dhabi, gathered over 6,000 participants from more than 100 countries. The event highlighted major infrastructure upgrades:
* The Firedancer validator client launched on mainnet, targeting over 10,000 transactions per second at full capacity.
* A new consensus mechanism, Alpenglow, was introduced, aiming for finality in approximately 150 milliseconds.
* Multiple Concurrent Proposers (MCP) was presented as a fundamental redesign of block production.
The conference also emphasized the growing focus on Real World Asset (RWA) integration:
* R3 announced “Corda,” a regulated RWA marketplace slated for launch in early 2026.
* WisdomTree is bringing tokenized RWAs to Solana.
* Securitize is expanding its platform to include offerings like BlackRock’s BUIDL fund.
* An XRP Bridge via Hex Trust and LayerZero aims to enhance liquidity and interoperability.
Within DeFi, the lending sector shows pronounced growth. A Redstone report noted that capital locked in lending protocols reached $3.6 billion in December 2025, a 33% year-over-year increase.
Kamino Lend currently dominates with $3.5 billion TVL and a modular architecture. Jupiter Lend is emerging as a rising competitor, while Save (formerly Solend) remains an established player. The sector is highly dynamic, with protocols capable of rising to the top of their category within six months of launch.
Solana’s stablecoin presence continues to grow, with the total supply now near $17 billion. Major issuers include Circle (USDC, EURC) and Tether (USDT). New entrants like Western Union are planning their own Solana-native stablecoins. The chain’s low transaction costs and high speed make it attractive for payment and settlement use cases.
SOL is currently trading around $120, barely above its 52-week low of $119.47. The token is nearly 50% below its yearly high, and trades roughly 12% below its 50-day moving average—a chart pattern indicative of a sustained correction. Technical indicators like the RSI near 40 point to weakness without clear oversold conditions. A support zone between $116-$120 has been tested multiple times since December, while moving averages around $130 act as resistance.
Several factors explain why the price performance lags behind strong fundamentals:
* The intense meme-coin wave from early 2025 has cooled significantly. January’s DEX volume of $408 billion was an outlier; volumes have since normalized.
* The broader crypto market is correcting. Bitcoin’s decline from $126,000 to $85,500 has created widespread pressure on altcoins.
* Following substantial gains in the first half of the year, profit-taking by investors has generated selling pressure.
* Security incidents, where over $250 million was stolen on Solana in H1 2025 (approximately 15% of all crypto losses in that period excluding the Bybit hack), have impacted the chain’s overall risk perception, despite typically targeting specific protocols or users.
Sentiment indicators paint a cautious picture. A Fear & Greed Index reading of 24 signals “Fear,” and technical models show bearish signals in about three-quarters of indicators. Social media sentiment is mixed, with a slight lean toward positive commentary. The market capitalization of the Solana ecosystem has fallen 47% year-to-date, from $330 billion to $173 billion, while trading volume has dropped more sharply, down roughly 90% from peak levels to under $11 billion.
Solana now stands at a critical juncture. Operationally, the network delivers impressive metrics, including finality times of around 400 milliseconds, average transaction fees near $0.001, and over 1.5 years of uninterrupted uptime. Yet, its price has retreated to levels influenced more by macro factors than project-specific successes, despite the ETF launches and growth in RWAs, DeFi, and stablecoins.
Looking ahead to 2026, several catalysts are visible: the full scaling of Firedancer and Alpenglow, the launch of R3’s Corda marketplace, further expansion of tokenized funds from major asset managers, and increased utilization of the new spot ETFs. The extent to which these drivers will be reflected in SOL’s price will also depend on whether the broader cryptocurrency market recovers from its current weak phase or if investor caution persists.
While the broader cryptocurrency sector faces headwinds, XRP presents a particularly confounding case as 2025 draws to a close. The digital asset is trading perilously close to its annual low, a stark contrast to a series of significant fundamental victories for its associated company, Ripple. This divergence between price action and positive developments has left market participants searching for answers.
The current market weakness for XRP is pronounced. Its price recently dipped to $1.83, hovering just above its 52-week low of $1.81. A Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 28.8 suggests the asset is in oversold territory, yet bearish sentiment persists. This decline occurs against a challenging macroeconomic backdrop for crypto, characterized by Bitcoin struggling at key resistance levels and a noticeable cooling of retail interest, evidenced by falling global search volumes for cryptocurrency topics.
Paradoxically, the institutional story for XRP has never been stronger. Following the resolution of its legal dispute with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in August 2025, the floodgates for professional investment opened. U.S. spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) dedicated to XRP recorded net inflows totaling nearly $1.14 billion by the end of December.
Furthermore, on December 12, Ripple received a critical regulatory endorsement: the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) granted it a national trust bank charter. This move significantly bolsters the company’s legitimacy within the American banking framework and is viewed as a cornerstone for its long-term strategic plans.
Beneath the surface price action, blockchain data reveals a significant shift that analysts are monitoring closely.
Despite these robust infrastructure developments, industry experts urge caution. Prominent figures, including Mike Novogratz, highlight an evolving market paradigm—one that is shifting away from speculative narratives and toward tangible economic utility. A key challenge for XRP in 2026 will be to demonstrate that its underlying technology generates concrete demand for the XRP token itself. Critics continue to point out that while Ripple’s payment network is expanding, its use does not inherently require the cryptocurrency.
Analyst outlooks for the coming year are divided. Optimistic scenarios, such as those from Standard Chartered, suggest that sustained ETF inflows could propel the price toward $8.00. More conservative forecasts, however, see the token consolidating within a range of $2.35 to $2.45 in the near term. The critical question for the first weeks of 2026 is whether the rapidly diminishing supply on exchanges will finally compensate for the current lack of retail demand and catalyze a price reversal.
Ethereum’s Contrarian Signal: Major Investors Accumulate Amid Market Fear
As 2025 draws to a close, a palpable sense of anxiety grips the cryptocurrency sector, with the widely watched Fear & Greed Index reflecting extreme investor apprehension. However, a closer examination of market dynamics reveals a starkly different narrative unfolding beneath the surface. Data indicates that while retail participants remain hesitant, large-scale investors are actively using the current price environment to build significant positions. This divergence raises a critical question: could the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency be poised for a reversal?
Institutional Activity Defies Short-Term Weakness
Beyond direct on-chain metrics, other indicators point to sustained professional interest. Trading volume for futures contracts on major exchanges has surged to record levels. This activity persists despite Ethereum’s price remaining approximately 37% below its 52-week high, suggesting institutions are looking past near-term volatility. Furthermore, the ongoing integration of tokenized real-world assets continues to validate the network’s long-term utility and fundamental growth trajectory.
A Battle for Direction at Key Levels
The market opened the week in a state of equilibrium, with neither buyers nor sellers able to establish clear dominance. Ethereum faced repeated rejection at the psychologically significant $3,050 resistance level and is currently trading near $2,939. Analysts have now identified the $2,900 region as a crucial support zone. A sustained break below this threshold could trigger further selling pressure toward $2,750. Conversely, a successful defense of this level would keep the prospect of a recovery firmly on the table. Notably, trading volume has increased perceptibly over the past 24 hours, signaling that participants are positioning themselves for the year-end period.
The Whale Accumulation Pattern
On-chain data provides compelling evidence of this divide between investor classes, offering bullish signals that contrast with the cautious market sentiment:
The final trading sessions of the year will likely center on the defense of the $2,900 support level. If buyers, bolstered by the ongoing accumulation from major investors, can maintain this foothold, a renewed attempt to challenge the $3,200 level in early 2026 emerges as the probable scenario.