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Analysis
Analysis
As Ethereum trades around $2,944, a level notably below its August peak, a significant shift is unfolding behind the scenes. The current consolidation phase is being aggressively used by institutional investors and corporate treasuries to expand their holdings. A growing chasm between stagnant prices and robust underlying metrics raises a critical question: how long can the market overlook this divergence?
Beyond capital flows, the Ethereum network itself demonstrates considerable vigor. December saw one of the year’s most substantial surges in new wallet creation. According to data from Santiment, network activity climbed by 25% compared to November.
The year 2025 also marked a technological milestone with two major upgrades. The “Pectra” upgrade in May was followed by the “Fusaka” update in December, which delivered critical improvements. The Fusaka enhancement is particularly significant for further reducing Layer-2 network costs and advancing scalability.
The most conspicuous trend in late December 2025 is an unprecedented accumulation by large-scale investors. Reports indicate corporate treasuries and spot ETFs now control nearly 11% of the circulating supply. This movement is spearheaded by BitMine, led by Tom Lee. On December 23 alone, the firm purchased an additional $88 million worth of ETH, cementing its position as the world’s largest corporate holder of Ethereum.
BitMine’s treasury now holds over 4 million ETH, representing 3.36% of the total supply, with an expressed goal of reaching 5%. This strategy underscores the long-term conviction of institutional players, who increasingly view Ethereum as essential financial infrastructure, irrespective of short-term price volatility.
A pivotal factor for 2026 will be the evolution of the ETF landscape. The SEC’s clarification in May 2025 that staking does not constitute a securities transaction has cleared the path for yield-generating products. Financial giant BlackRock has already filed an application for an “iShares Staked ETH ETF.” Year-to-date, Ethereum ETFs have seen net inflows of approximately $12.7 billion.
The aggressive buying from major investors coincides with a steadily declining available supply. Just 10.5% of all ETH now sits on centralized exchanges—one of the lowest levels since the network’s launch and a 43% drop since July.
Simultaneously, more than 35.6 million ETH is locked in staking contracts, accounting for nearly 30% of the total supply. This constriction of freely tradable coins could act as a potent catalyst for price appreciation should broader demand return.
Ethereum enters the new year with fortified fundamentals and a historically tight supply. While the price continues to seek a firm base, the institutional groundwork has already been laid in the background. Should macroeconomic conditions prove favorable, 2026 could see potentially rising demand meeting a more constrained supply than ever before.
As the year draws to a close, Solana’s price action appears calm on the surface, but significant activity is unfolding beneath. A stark divergence is emerging: while retail sentiment remains gripped by fear and SOL consolidates near $120, major corporate entities are executing substantial purchases. One company’s announcement is particularly noteworthy, signaling a bold institutional bet on the blockchain’s future.
On December 23, U.S. firm Upexi (NASDAQ: UPXI) filed a registration statement with the SEC seeking to raise up to $1 billion in fresh capital. The stated purpose is singular and clear: to expand the company’s holdings of Solana (SOL).
Upexi is already a major holder, with a treasury containing approximately 2.03 million SOL, valued at around $254 million. This makes it the fourth-largest publicly traded company by Solana holdings. The proposed capital raise—which could be funded through the sale of stock, preferred shares, or warrants—would empower the firm to absorb significant volumes of SOL from the open market. This move underscores a growing narrative: corporations are positioning for the next market phase even as individual investors retreat.
Currently trading between $124 and $127, SOL has corrected roughly 39% since its October highs. Technical analysts are watching the $123 support level closely; a sustained break below could trigger a slide toward $110. Over $90 million in leveraged long positions are at risk if the price declines further.
However, on-chain metrics paint a picture of underlying resilience. Despite price pressure, the Solana network demonstrates robust health:
* 3.25 million daily active users—a figure that dispels earlier concerns of a drop below one million.
* A projection of 98 million monthly active users for the full year 2025.
* Sustained high utilization across its DeFi, payments, and decentralized infrastructure sectors.
The departure of speculative “tourists” has left a committed and active core user base, suggesting fundamental strength.
Investment flows tell a compelling story. While Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs saw net outflows in December, Solana-focused exchange-traded products (ETPs) attracted over $69 million in new capital. Since October, U.S. spot Solana ETFs have seen cumulative inflows approaching $750 million.
Concurrently, a withdrawal of SOL from exchanges is underway, indicating a shift toward long-term custody. In just the past 24 hours, $8.77 million worth of SOL was moved to cold storage wallets—a classic sign of accumulation.
Infrastructure development continues apace. Coinbase has enhanced integration by enabling direct SOL transfers between the Solana mainnet and its Base Layer-2 network, boosting liquidity interoperability across ecosystems.
Market sentiment, as measured by the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, sits at 25—a level historically associated with local market bottoms. Regulatory developments may provide a further catalyst. The appointment of Michael Selig as Chair of the CFTC has fueled expectations for clearer digital asset frameworks by Q1 2026, a prospect institutional players appear to be pricing in early.
The current disconnect between SOL’s price performance and its strong network fundamentals hints that this period may represent consolidation before a new institutional accumulation cycle. Upexi’s billion-dollar plan is more than a corporate gamble; it is a tangible indicator of where sophisticated capital sees long-term value in the Solana ecosystem.
Bitcoin’s price action diverged sharply from precious metals on Tuesday, dropping below the $88,000 threshold. While gold and silver scaled new record peaks, the leading cryptocurrency decoupled from this rally. Analysts point to a confluence of pressures: persistent outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, a looming multi-billion dollar options expiry, and thinner trading liquidity due to the holiday season.
Market participants are bracing for a major liquidity event this Friday, December 26th. On the Deribit exchange, Bitcoin options contracts with a notional value estimated between $23.6 billion and $28.5 billion are set to expire. This represents over half of the total open interest in the market.
The “max pain” price—where the most options would expire worthless—is situated near $95,000. A heavy concentration of call options is clustered between $100,000 and $120,000, while put options are creating gravitational pull around the $85,000 mark. This massive expiry, combined with reduced holiday trading volumes, is expected to fuel volatility. Recent data shows open interest in Bitcoin futures has already declined by $3 billion, signaling a broad reduction in risk exposure.
The pressure on Bitcoin is underscored by continued capital withdrawal from exchange-traded funds. On Monday, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $142 million, marking the third consecutive day of withdrawals.
While BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) saw a modest $6 million inflow, this was more than offset by substantial selling in funds offered by Fidelity, Bitwise, and Ark Invest. This trend extends a challenging period for the sector; global crypto exchange-traded products (ETPs) bled nearly $3.76 billion in November alone, a stark reversal following months of steady accumulation.
Mixed signals are also emerging from a major corporate holder. Strategy Inc., the parent of former MicroStrategy, has temporarily paused its aggressive Bitcoin acquisition strategy. The firm recently sold $748 million worth of its own shares, a move aimed at bolstering its cash reserves to $2.19 billion.
The company’s substantial Bitcoin treasury remains untouched, holding 671,268 BTC acquired at an average price of $74,972 per coin. Despite this, the market reaction was negative, with shares of MSTR declining 4.4% on Monday.
From a chart perspective, Bitcoin is trading approximately 30% below its yearly high of $126,268. Market technicians note the formation of a bearish pennant pattern on shorter timeframes, and the Supertrend indicator has turned negative. The cryptocurrency has now traded below its long-term bull market channel for six consecutive weeks.
Adding to the concerns, the network’s hash rate has declined by 4%, according to analysis by VanEck. Historically, such drops—often viewed as indicators of miner capitulation—have coincided with local market bottoms. In the near term, however, they raise questions about network security and stability.
With the significant options expiry on December 26th, a clear path back above the psychologically important $90,000 level appears blocked for now.
Investors in XRP are facing a contradictory landscape as the year draws to a close. The digital asset’s price has fallen below the psychologically significant $2.00 threshold, yet the underlying blockchain has simultaneously reported unprecedented usage levels. This divergence between weak price action and strong fundamental growth prompts a key market question: is this a simple correction being used for portfolio repositioning, or are profit-taking activities driving the trend?
Away from the price charts, the XRP Ledger (XRPL) is demonstrating remarkable activity. Ripple’s Chief Technology Officer, David Schwartz, recently announced a significant achievement: the network has now processed over four billion confirmed transactions. Schwartz emphasized that this volume represents real-world utility, facilitated by the network’s fast and low-cost settlement capabilities. High on-chain activity is frequently viewed as a long-term indicator of a maturing protocol, even when its immediate impact on valuation is not apparent.
The growing interest from institutional investors serves as a stabilizing counter-narrative. Following the regulatory clarity achieved after the conclusion of the SEC lawsuit, newly launched spot XRP ETFs have attracted substantial capital inflows. Reports indicate that some of these financial products have already surpassed one billion dollars in trading volume. Industry figures, including Canary Capital CEO Stephen McClurg, interpret this as a paradigm shift, with XRP increasingly establishing itself as infrastructure for the broader financial system.
Currently trading near $1.90, XRP confirms its recent downward trajectory. Market observers primarily attribute this movement to a rotation of capital, where liquidity is flowing toward Bitcoin and other altcoins with stronger short-term momentum, leaving older assets temporarily behind.
Analysts note that breaking the $2.00 support level triggered automated sell orders, intensifying downward pressure. Technically-focused traders are now watching for the next potential support zone around $1.63.
Contrasting with institutional adoption, short-term on-chain data reveals caution among large holders. Increased inflows from so-called “whale” wallets to trading exchanges have been observed. This pattern often signals profit-taking or hedging strategies and helps explain the persistent selling resistance encountered during recent price recovery attempts.
As 2025 concludes, near-term expectations for XRP remain tempered. A survey conducted by the cryptocurrency exchange Gemini found that nearly three-quarters of participants anticipate the price will be between $1.50 and $2.00 at the turn of the year. While the long-term foundation appears strengthened by ETF growth and record network usage, current sentiment suggests the market is undergoing a phase of recalibration.
Bitcoin Faces Year-End Headwinds Amid Diverging Market Signals
As 2025 draws to a close, Bitcoin is experiencing a turbulent period characterized by conflicting pressures. A combination of tax-related selling, waning interest from major holders, and mounting stress within the mining industry is weighing on the cryptocurrency’s price. However, underlying blockchain data suggests that such periods of strain have historically often preceded market bottoms. This presents a puzzle for investors: how should one interpret the clash between immediate weakness and these longer-term constructive signals?
Institutional Flows and Policy Developments
The institutional landscape presents a mixed picture as the year ends. Major exchange-traded products, including BlackRock’s IBIT, have seen net outflows in recent weeks, pointing to tighter overall liquidity conditions. Yet, targeted accumulation continues elsewhere.
These movements indicate that, beneath the daily price volatility, structural holders and new forms of institutional demand continue to establish themselves, even if their actions are not synchronized with short-term market trends.
Technical Pressure and Immediate Catalysts
Bitcoin is currently trading near $87,085, significantly below its 52-week high of approximately $124,000 and only modestly above its annual low. The price sits about 6% below its 50-day moving average, while a Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading around 38 indicates a weakened but not yet severely oversold market.
From a chart perspective, the asset has become entrenched below a key resistance zone near $88,000. Having broken below a long-term upward trend channel roughly six weeks ago, Bitcoin has since moved within a relatively narrow range with little momentum. Implied volatility remains elevated, with the annualized 30-day volatility standing above 34%.
Several near-term factors are exacerbating the downward pressure:
Mining Sector Shows Signs of Strain
Despite the weak price action, some analysts view current conditions in the mining sector as potentially constructive. A new analysis from VanEck indicates miners are entering a “capitulation” phase, characterized by the forced exit of less efficient operators.
Key observations include:
Market observers have often interpreted these consolidation phases, where well-capitalized miners gain market share from inefficient ones, as a cleansing process that can lay the groundwork for future recoveries.
Sentiment and Diverging 2026 Outlooks
Current sentiment indicators paint a clear picture of uncertainty. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index reads 24, firmly in “Extreme Fear” territory, which typically reflects high caution and reduced risk appetite.
Forecasts for 2026 vary widely among analysts:
As 2025 concludes, two narratives are colliding: short-term burdens like tax-loss harvesting, whale distributions, and options expiry on one side, and more constructive on-chain and structural signals on the other. The immediate test will be the options expiry on December 26, which, depending on market reaction, could lead to either a pronounced volatility shake-out or a meaningful relief rally.